Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Dating Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dating Sim Open World game?

Open World + Dating Sim

Of 58 developers who shipped a Dating Sim Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 85 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $44k, ×30 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $6.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $13M, ×8943 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 85 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 29.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 85 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Dating Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 58
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $97k → $50k → $94k → $76k → $44k → $21k → $58k (still earning) → $18k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Dating Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 58
Bottom 30% $6.8k (exactly $6,834)
Median $44k (exactly $44,461)
Top 25% $201k (exactly $201,466)
Top 5% $13M (exactly $13,395,985)
Developers, 2 yr 58
Released games 166
Announced 85
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Dating Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Action
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 61% positive over 312,467 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $6.9k, median $44k, 1 in 4 over $200k, 1 in 20 over $13M.

3 in 10 developers made under $6.9k. 4 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 85 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Stardew Valley 2016 · $402M Monster Hunter Wilds 2025 · $241M The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome 2026 · $51M My Time at Sandrock 2023 · $29M Coral Island 2023 · $20M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stardew Valley older $14.99 894,201 98% 27M $402M (exactly $402,122,190) ConcernedApe
Monster Hunter Wilds $39.99 200,984 52% 6.0M $241M (exactly $241,120,505) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome $29.99 56,535 65% 1.7M $51M (exactly $50,864,540) ConchShip Games
My Time at Sandrock older $39.99 24,110 88% 723k $29M (exactly $28,924,767) Pathea Games
Coral Island older $29.99 21,828 89% 655k $20M (exactly $19,638,652) Stairway Games
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
CODE VEIN II $69.99 5,193 66% 156k $11M (exactly $10,903,742) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
Fate Seeker II older $22.60 11,360 88% 341k $7.7M (exactly $7,702,080) JSL Entertainment
Sword Art Online: Hollow Realization Deluxe Edition older $39.99 5,731 78% 172k $6.9M (exactly $6,875,481) AQURIA
STORY OF SEASONS: Friends of Mineral Town older $39.99 5,268 93% 158k $6.3M (exactly $6,320,020) Marvelous Inc.
Yakuza Kiwami 3 & Dark Ties $59.99 2,229 62% 67k $4.0M (exactly $4,011,531) RGG Studio
Romantic Escapades $19.99 5,587 94% 168k $3.4M (exactly $3,350,524) 蠑螈
Yakuza 0 Director's Cut $49.99 1,628 80% 49k $2.4M (exactly $2,441,512) RGG Studio
Path of Kung Fu $14.99 4,880 72% 146k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,536) 游鲤化龙工作室
Tales of Seikyu $24.99 2,179 83% 65k $1.6M (exactly $1,633,596) ACE Entertainment
Yakuza Kiwami $19.99 1,334 82% 40k $800k (exactly $800,000) RGG Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.