Games › Open World › Open World + Crime
Should I ship a Crime Open World game?
Open World + Crime
Of 64 developers who shipped a Crime Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 170 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.9k, ×4.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $7.0M, ×4707 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 170 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $898 (exactly $898) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.9k (exactly $6,893) |
| Top 25% | $175k (exactly $175,112) |
| Top 5% | $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 64 |
| Released games | 193 |
| Announced | 170 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Crime
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Simulation
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, Story Rich, Funny
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 539,466 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $900. 5 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 170 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced 2025 · $190M 
Schedule I 2025 · EA · $173M 
Watch_Dogs® 2 2016 · $143M 
Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition 2020 · $108M 
Mafia: Definitive Edition 2020 · $107M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced | $29.99 | 210,784 83% | 6.3M | $190M (exactly $189,642,365) | Rockstar North | |
| | Schedule I | · EA | $19.99 | 288,939 97% | 8.7M | $173M (exactly $173,276,718) | TVGS |
| | Watch_Dogs® 2 | older | $49.99 | 95,242 82% | 2.9M | $143M (exactly $142,834,427) | Ubisoft |
| | Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition | older | $19.99 | 180,637 83% | 5.4M | $108M (exactly $108,328,009) | Rockstar North, Rockstar Toronto |
| | Mafia: Definitive Edition | older | $39.99 | 88,955 86% | 2.7M | $107M (exactly $106,719,314) | Hangar 13 |
 | Sleeping Dogs: Definitive Edition | older | $19.99 | 70,499 94% | 2.1M | $42M (exactly $42,278,250) | United Front Games, Feral Interactive (… (United Front Games, Feral Interactive (Mac)) |
 | Mafia III: Definitive Edition | older | $29.99 | 41,612 57% | 1.2M | $37M (exactly $37,438,316) | Hangar 13, Aspyr (Mac) |
 | Mafia II (Classic) | older | $29.99 | 36,389 92% | 1.1M | $33M (exactly $32,739,183) | 2K Czech |
 | Mafia: The Old Country | $49.99 | 20,909 71% | 627k | $31M (exactly $31,357,227) | Hangar 13 | |
 | Gotham Knights | older | $59.99 | 15,688 68% | 471k | $28M (exactly $28,233,694) | Warner Bros. Games Montréal, QLOC |
 | The Precinct | $29.99 | 7,837 87% | 235k | $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) | Fallen Tree Games Ltd | |
 | Yakuza Kiwami 3 & Dark Ties | $59.99 | 2,229 62% | 67k | $4.0M (exactly $4,011,531) | RGG Studio | |
 | Psycho Patrol R | · EA | $39.99 | 2,090 88% | 63k | $2.5M (exactly $2,507,373) | Consumer Softproducts |
 | Yakuza 0 Director's Cut | $49.99 | 1,628 80% | 49k | $2.4M (exactly $2,441,512) | RGG Studio | |
 | Promise Mascot Agency | $24.99 | 2,569 96% | 77k | $1.9M (exactly $1,925,979) | Kaizen Game Works | |
 | Yakuza Kiwami | $19.99 | 1,334 82% | 40k | $800k (exactly $800,000) | RGG Studio | |
 | Used Cars Simulator | · EA | $19.99 | 1,147 79% | 34k | $688k (exactly $687,856) | DreamWay Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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