Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Crafting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Open World game?

Open World + Crafting

Of 526 developers who shipped a Crafting Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,422 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $12k, ×7.7 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $6.7M, ×4485 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 1,422 games are announced against 302 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 1,422 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Crafting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 526
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.6k → $8.2k → $24k → $21k → $12k → $10k → $13k (still earning) → $12k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Crafting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 526
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Median $12k (exactly $11,510)
Top 25% $200k (exactly $199,689)
Top 5% $6.7M (exactly $6,719,039)
Developers, 2 yr 526
Released games 1,612
Announced 1,422
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $13.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Crafting; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Sandbox, Building
Price point
$13.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $13.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 1,850,476 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $190k, 1 in 20 over $6.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 6 in 10 of the 258 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,422 games are announced against 302 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Rust 2018 · $1.4B No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M Valheim 2026 · $418M Stardew Valley 2016 · $402M Terraria 2011 · $372M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
Valheim $29.99 464,893 94% 14M $418M (exactly $418,264,232) Iron Gate AB
Stardew Valley older $14.99 894,201 98% 27M $402M (exactly $402,122,190) ConcernedApe
Terraria older $9.99 1,240,388 97% 37M $372M (exactly $371,744,284) Re-Logic
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
The Forest older $19.99 581,431 95% 17M $349M (exactly $348,684,171) Endnight Games Ltd
Subnautica older $29.99 341,390 97% 10M $307M (exactly $307,148,583) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Satisfactory older $39.99 234,993 97% 7.0M $282M (exactly $281,921,102) Coffee Stain Studios
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
SCUM $44.99 98,554 74% 3.0M $133M (exactly $133,018,334) Gamepires
Dune: Awakening $49.99 66,844 71% 2.0M $100M (exactly $100,245,947) Funcom
Scrap Mechanic $28.99 109,429 92% 3.3M $95M (exactly $95,170,401) Axolot Games
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express
Deadside $24.99 34,560 76% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,909,632) Bad Pixel
RuneScape: Dragonwilds $29.99 28,071 81% 842k $25M (exactly $25,255,479) Jagex Ltd

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.