Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Cooking

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cooking Open World game?

Open World + Cooking

Of 64 developers who shipped a Cooking Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 163 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.4k, ×5.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×2415 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 163 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 163 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Cooking
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 64
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $30k → $2.5k → $35k → $175k → $18k → $4.2k → $41k (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Cooking: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 64
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Median $8.4k (exactly $8,388)
Top 25% $155k (exactly $155,101)
Top 5% $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278)
Developers, 2 yr 64
Released games 142
Announced 163
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Cooking
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Cooking; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Simulation, Exploration
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 3D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 66,500 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $8.4k, 1 in 4 over $150k, 1 in 20 over $3.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 6 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 163 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Black Desert 2017 · $19M Fields of Mistria 2026 · $13M Hello Kitty Island Adventure 2025 · $12M Kebab Chefs! - Restaurant Simulator 2026 · $3.8M The Quinfall 2026 · $3.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Black Desert older $9.99 63,052 75% 1.9M $19M (exactly $18,896,684) Pearl Abyss
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
Hello Kitty Island Adventure $39.99 9,637 93% 289k $12M (exactly $11,561,509) Sunblink
Kebab Chefs! - Restaurant Simulator $17.99 7,019 83% 211k $3.8M (exactly $3,788,154) Biotech Gameworks
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
One Hour One Life older $14.99 3,988 79% 120k $1.8M (exactly $1,793,404) Jason Rohrer
REKA · EA older $19.99 2,989 82% 90k $1.8M (exactly $1,792,503) Emberstorm Entertainment
Echoes of the Plum Grove older $19.99 2,681 87% 80k $1.6M (exactly $1,607,796) Unwound Games
Arctic Eggs older $9.99 5,343 95% 160k $1.6M (exactly $1,601,297) The Water Museum, cockydoody, abmarnie,… (The Water Museum, cockydoody, abmarnie, Cameron Ginex)
Chef RPG · EA older $19.99 2,593 87% 78k $1.6M (exactly $1,555,022) World 2 Studio
Fruitbus $24.99 962 86% 29k $721k (exactly $721,211) Krillbite Studio
To Pixelia $14.99 1,194 73% 36k $537k (exactly $536,942) Pixeduo Studios
Alaska Gold Fever $16.99 959 79% 29k $489k (exactly $488,802) Baked Games
OxyRail · EA $14.99 949 80% 28k $427k (exactly $426,765) OxygenTech Limited
Vacation Cafe Simulator $19.99 700 88% 21k $420k (exactly $419,790) Alice Games
Halcyon Days at Taoyuan $11.99 1,089 89% 33k $392k (exactly $391,713) BotanX

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.