Do I ship it?

Games › Colony Sim › Colony Sim + War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a War Colony Sim?

Colony Sim + War

Of 24 developers who shipped a War Colony Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 57 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.6k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $6.3M, ×10148 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 57 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 57 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $388k → $1.9k → $3.2M → $18k (still earning) → $6.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Median $6.6k (exactly $6,624)
Top 25% $73k (exactly $73,379)
Top 5% $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 62
Announced 57
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
War
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim; all of the top 25% also carry Base Building, RTS, Strategy
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 29,488 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.3k, median $6.6k, 1 in 4 over $73k, 1 in 20 over $6.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.3k. 6 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 57 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Northgard: Definitive Edition 2018 · $57M Diplomacy is Not an Option 2024 · $9.8M 下一站江湖Ⅱ 2024 · $6.4M Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition 2025 · $6.4M Stronghold: Warlords 2021 · $5.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Northgard: Definitive Edition older $34.99 54,478 85% 1.6M $57M (exactly $57,185,557) Shiro Games
Diplomacy is Not an Option $29.99 10,904 85% 327k $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) Door 407
下一站江湖Ⅱ older $24.99 8,507 72% 255k $6.4M (exactly $6,377,698) 白玉京工作室
Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition $19.99 10,627 92% 319k $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012) Firefly Studios
Stronghold: Warlords older $39.99 4,449 65% 133k $5.3M (exactly $5,337,465) Firefly Studios
Stronghold Crusader HD (2012) older $9.99 17,564 97% 527k $5.3M (exactly $5,263,931) Firefly Studios
Becastled $19.99 5,349 81% 160k $3.2M (exactly $3,207,795) Mana Potion Studios
Surviving the Aftermath older $29.99 3,144 72% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,828,657) Iceflake Studios
Stronghold 2: Steam Edition older $14.99 4,881 88% 146k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,986) Firefly Studios
Frozenheim older $19.99 3,463 70% 104k $2.1M (exactly $2,076,761) Paranoid Interactive
Ground of Aces · EA $29.99 1,415 84% 42k $1.3M (exactly $1,273,076) Blindflug Studios AG
Territory: Farming and Warfare $14.99 738 84% 22k $332k (exactly $331,879) Wit Studio
Outlive 25 $11.99 204 93% 6.1k $73k (exactly $73,379) Continuum Entertainment
Machinefall $14.99 119 82% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) by Jan Zizka
Rising Army $11.99 57 64% 1.7k $21k (exactly $20,503) Arkbits
Royal Lord - 王权领主 $14.99 40 90% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,988) 开发鸭
Space Tales $14.99 35 80% 1.1k $16k (exactly $15,740) Saigon Dragon Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.