Do I ship it?

GamesColony SimColony Sim + Tactical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Colony Sim Tactical game?

Colony Sim + Tactical

Of 36 developers who shipped a Colony Sim Tactical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 70 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.6k, ×7.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $3.2M, ×5108 the market median. Revenue is up 40% on the market; 70 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 40% on the market, 70 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + Tactical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $229k → $25k → $987k → $450 → $6.6k → $599 → $6.1k (still earning) → $619k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + Tactical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $4.6k (exactly $4,554)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $33,736)
Top 5% $3.2M (exactly $3,207,795)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 74
Announced 70
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim, Tactical; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Strategy, Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 20,242 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $4.6k, 1 in 4 over $33k, 1 in 20 over $3.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 70 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Northgard: Definitive Edition older $34.99 54,478 85% 1.6M $57M (exactly $57,185,557) Shiro Games
They Are Billions older $29.99 46,223 85% 1.4M $42M (exactly $41,586,833) Numantian Games
Diplomacy is Not an Option $29.99 10,904 85% 327k $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) Door 407
Becastled $19.99 5,349 81% 160k $3.2M (exactly $3,207,795) Mana Potion Studios
Surviving the Aftermath older $29.99 3,144 72% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,828,657) Iceflake Studios
Tower! Simulator 3 older $59.99 1,047 67% 31k $1.9M (exactly $1,884,286) FeelThere
Land of the Vikings older $25.99 1,960 72% 59k $1.5M (exactly $1,528,212) Laps Games
The Settlers: New Allies older $39.99 1,175 49% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,409,648) Ubisoft Düsseldorf
Industries of Titan older $29.99 1,553 61% 47k $1.4M (exactly $1,397,234) Brace Yourself Games
The Lost Village older $11.99 2,743 70% 82k $987k (exactly $986,657) FunYoo Games
Dungeon Settlers · EA $24.99 1,117 79% 34k $837k (exactly $837,415) CanOpener
Anomaly President · EA $14.99 1,376 91% 41k $619k (exactly $618,787) Phew Phew Games
Exogate Initiative $24.99 691 75% 21k $518k (exactly $518,043) Xeno Bits
Night is Coming · EA $24.99 387 59% 12k $290k (exactly $290,134) Wild Forest Studio
Kaya's Prophecy $13.99 196 70% 5.9k $82k (exactly $82,261) Jérémie & Thibaut
Edge Islands · EA $17.99 93 74% 2.8k $50k (exactly $50,192) LS Games
SpaceSlog · EA $24.99 45 66% 1.4k $34k (exactly $33,736) Produno Games Studios
The Deadly Path $12.99 84 39% 2.5k $33k (exactly $32,735) Owlskip Enterprises

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.