Do I ship it?

GamesColony SimColony Sim + Space Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Colony Sim Space Sim?

Colony Sim + Space Sim

Of 42 developers who shipped a Colony Sim Space Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 91 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.6k, ×7.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $970k, ×1550 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 91 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 91 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + Space Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $9.7k → $3.2k → $9.7k → $9.4k → $4.0k → $34k (still earning) → $3.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + Space Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Median $4.6k (exactly $4,613)
Top 25% $39k (exactly $38,674)
Top 5% $973k (exactly $973,313)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 107
Announced 91
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 180% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Space Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim, Space Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Base Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 16,382 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $4.6k, 1 in 4 over $38k, 1 in 20 over $970k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 91 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Oxygen Not Included older $24.99 135,337 96% 4.1M $101M (exactly $101,462,149) Klei Entertainment
Space Haven $24.99 10,267 85% 308k $7.7M (exactly $7,697,170) Bugbyte Ltd.
Planetbase older $14.99 9,558 79% 287k $4.3M (exactly $4,298,233) Madruga Works
Tower! Simulator 3 older $59.99 1,047 67% 31k $1.9M (exactly $1,884,286) FeelThere
Astro Colony $19.99 2,397 80% 72k $1.4M (exactly $1,437,481) Terad Games
Industries of Titan older $29.99 1,553 61% 47k $1.4M (exactly $1,397,234) Brace Yourself Games
Stardeus · EA older $29.99 1,430 87% 43k $1.3M (exactly $1,286,571) Kodo Linija
The Last Starship $19.99 1,623 75% 49k $973k (exactly $973,313) Introversion Software
Jumplight Odyssey · EA older $29.99 961 58% 29k $865k (exactly $864,612) League of Geeks
Solargene $34.99 777 77% 23k $816k (exactly $815,617) Alexander Semenov
Stellar Settlers: Space Base Builder $11.99 744 69% 22k $268k (exactly $267,617) Tinymice Entertainment
Space for Sale $19.99 140 50% 4.2k $84k (exactly $83,958) Mirage Game Studios
Outlive 25 $11.99 204 93% 6.1k $73k (exactly $73,379) Continuum Entertainment
Surviving Mars: Pioneer $24.99 78 83% 2.3k $58k (exactly $58,477) Bolverk Games
Utopia Colony $16.99 99 63% 3.0k $50k (exactly $50,460) GridSky Studios
Possible One: Lunar Industries · EA $24.99 53 64% 1.6k $40k (exactly $39,734) Upstairs Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.