Do I ship it?

Games › Colony Sim › Colony Sim + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Colony Sim?

Colony Sim + Sci-fi

Of 84 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Colony Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 206 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.6k, ×7.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×2394 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 206 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 206 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 84
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $229k → $9.7k → $28k → $719 → $34k → $3.6k → $38k (still earning) → $3.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 84
Bottom 30% $1.6k (exactly $1,618)
Median $4.6k (exactly $4,554)
Top 25% $73k (exactly $73,379)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,503,448)
Developers, 2 yr 84
Released games 197
Announced 206
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Base Building, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 38,237 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.7k, median $4.6k, 1 in 4 over $73k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 7 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 206 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

RimWorld 2018 · $219M Oxygen Not Included 2019 · $101M SPORE™ 2008 · $40M Stranded: Alien Dawn 2023 · $10M Stationeers 2017 · EA · $9.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
RimWorld older $34.99 208,693 97% 6.3M $219M (exactly $219,065,042) Ludeon Studios
Oxygen Not Included older $24.99 135,337 96% 4.1M $101M (exactly $101,462,149) Klei Entertainment
SPORE™ older $19.99 66,871 92% 2.0M $40M (exactly $40,102,539) Maxis™
Stranded: Alien Dawn older $34.99 9,715 84% 291k $10M (exactly $10,197,836) Haemimont Games
Stationeers · EA older $34.99 8,597 88% 258k $9.0M (exactly $9,024,271) RocketWerkz
Space Haven $24.99 10,267 85% 308k $7.7M (exactly $7,697,170) Bugbyte Ltd.
The Universim older $29.99 8,465 79% 254k $7.6M (exactly $7,615,960) Crytivo
StarRupture · EA $19.99 12,333 80% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,396,100) Creepy Jar
Planetbase older $14.99 9,558 79% 287k $4.3M (exactly $4,298,233) Madruga Works
Per Aspera older $29.99 4,105 76% 123k $3.7M (exactly $3,693,268) Tlön Industries
The Crust $31.99 3,502 76% 105k $3.4M (exactly $3,360,869) VEOM Studio
Plan B: Terraform $15.99 3,526 91% 106k $1.7M (exactly $1,691,422) Gaddy Games
Eden Crafters $19.99 2,507 85% 75k $1.5M (exactly $1,503,448) Osaris Games
Drill Core $19.99 2,130 84% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,277,361) Hungry Couch Games
The Last Starship $19.99 1,623 75% 49k $973k (exactly $973,313) Introversion Software
Solargene $34.99 777 77% 23k $816k (exactly $815,617) Alexander Semenov
Microtopia $19.99 881 87% 26k $528k (exactly $528,336) Cordyceps Collective
Exogate Initiative $24.99 691 75% 21k $518k (exactly $518,043) Xeno Bits

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.