Do I ship it?

Games › Colony Sim › Colony Sim + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Colony Sim?

Colony Sim + Nature

Of 61 developers who shipped a Nature Colony Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 121 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.6k, ×7.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $4.8M, ×7751 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 121 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 121 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 61
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $60k → $27k → $3.4k → $36k → $2.5k → $92k → $24k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 61
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,134)
Median $4.6k (exactly $4,554)
Top 25% $108k (exactly $107,946)
Top 5% $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377)
Developers, 2 yr 61
Released games 120
Announced 121
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 105% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Resource Management, Sandbox
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 77,534 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $4.6k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $4.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 6 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 121 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Timberborn 2026 · $40M Going Medieval 2026 · $15M The Wandering Village 2025 · $7.0M Railroads Online 2024 · $4.9M Flotsam 2025 · $3.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
Railroads Online $29.99 5,410 75% 162k $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377) Stefan Kelnberger
Flotsam $24.99 4,308 80% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708) Pajama Llama Games
Reus 2 older $24.99 2,133 94% 64k $1.6M (exactly $1,599,110) Abbey Games
Laysara: Summit Kingdom $24.99 1,421 80% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,065,324) Quite OK Games
Cattails: Wildwood Story older $19.99 1,479 97% 44k $887k (exactly $886,956) Falcon Development
Endzone 2 $29.99 894 65% 27k $804k (exactly $804,332) Gentlymad Studios
Snowtopia: Ski Resort Builder older $24.99 828 66% 25k $621k (exactly $620,752) TeaForTwo
Synergy $24.99 693 79% 21k $520k (exactly $519,542) Leikir Studio
Ecosystem $19.99 601 76% 18k $360k (exactly $360,420) Tom Johnson
Planetary Life · EA $11.99 912 94% 27k $328k (exactly $328,046) Sotenbox

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.