Do I ship it?

GamesColony SimColony Sim + Life Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Life Sim Colony Sim?

Colony Sim + Life Sim

Of 47 developers who shipped a Life Sim Colony Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 99 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.4k, ×7.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $900k, ×1436 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 99 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 99 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + Life Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 47
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $39k → $4.7k → $1.6M → $114k → $9.4k → $3.6k → $9.0k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + Life Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 47
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $4.4k (exactly $4,406)
Top 25% $58k (exactly $57,542)
Top 5% $902k (exactly $901,949)
Developers, 2 yr 47
Released games 147
Announced 99
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.66

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim, Life Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Sandbox
Price point
$9.66 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.66.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 19,992 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $4.4k, 1 in 4 over $57k, 1 in 20 over $900k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 6 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 99 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
WorldBox - God Simulator · EA older $19.99 51,071 95% 1.5M $31M (exactly $30,627,279) Maxim Karpenko
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
Sengoku Dynasty $29.99 6,592 74% 198k $5.9M (exactly $5,930,822) Superkami
Clanfolk · EA older $29.99 3,779 91% 113k $3.4M (exactly $3,399,966) MinMax Games Ltd.
Tower! Simulator 3 older $59.99 1,047 67% 31k $1.9M (exactly $1,884,286) FeelThere
One Hour One Life older $14.99 3,988 79% 120k $1.8M (exactly $1,793,404) Jason Rohrer
Echoes of the Plum Grove older $19.99 2,681 87% 80k $1.6M (exactly $1,607,796) Unwound Games
Reus 2 older $24.99 2,133 94% 64k $1.6M (exactly $1,599,110) Abbey Games
Sapiens · EA older $24.99 2,052 80% 62k $1.5M (exactly $1,538,384) Majic Jungle
Wild West Legacy older $26.99 1,706 39% 51k $1.4M (exactly $1,381,348) Moon Punch Studio
Havendock $19.99 1,504 81% 45k $902k (exactly $901,949) YYZ Studio
Ecosystem $19.99 601 76% 18k $360k (exactly $360,420) Tom Johnson
Planetary Life · EA $11.99 912 94% 27k $328k (exactly $328,046) Sotenbox
One Lonely Outpost $19.99 540 58% 16k $324k (exactly $323,838) indie.io
My Little Life $5.99 1,043 89% 31k $187k (exactly $187,427) 9FingerGames
This Grand Life 2 $17.99 307 88% 9.2k $166k (exactly $165,688) Poking Water Games
Sinner Maker · EA $9.66 545 91% 16k $158k (exactly $157,941) Pantokrator
Catizens $17.77 214 81% 6.4k $114k (exactly $114,083) badopticsgames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.