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Should I ship a Hex Grid Colony Sim?
Colony Sim + Hex Grid
Only 14 developers shipped a Hex Grid Colony Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Plan B: Terraform, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.6k, ×7.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2693 the market median. Revenue is up 730% on the market; 23 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.9k (exactly $1,887) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.6k (exactly $4,554) |
| Top 25% | $27k (exactly $26,618) |
| Top 5% | $1.7M (exactly $1,691,422) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 14 |
| Released games | 28 |
| Announced | 23 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 730% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Colony Sim
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Hex Grid
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Colony Sim, Hex Grid
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 4,071 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.9k. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + ArcadeLong shot
- + 4XPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Action RPGPoor odds
- + Post-apocalypticPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
Comparable games
Plan B: Terraform 2025 · $1.7M 
As Far As The Eye 2020 · $1.2M 
Sheltered 2 2021 · $1.2M 
Before We Leave 2021 · $766k 
Landnama 2023 · $184k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Plan B: Terraform | $15.99 | 3,526 91% | 106k | $1.7M (exactly $1,691,422) | Gaddy Games | |
| | As Far As The Eye | older | $24.99 | 1,640 73% | 49k | $1.2M (exactly $1,229,508) | Unexpected |
| | Sheltered 2 | older | $19.99 | 2,015 45% | 60k | $1.2M (exactly $1,208,396) | Unicube |
| | Before We Leave | older | $19.99 | 1,278 78% | 38k | $766k (exactly $766,417) | Balancing Monkey Games |
| | Landnama | older | $13.99 | 439 74% | 13k | $184k (exactly $184,248) | Sonderland |
 | MicroTown | · EA older | $9.99 | 444 94% | 13k | $133k (exactly $133,067) | Snowy Ash Games |
 | Humanica | · EA | $14.99 | 192 93% | 5.8k | $86k (exactly $86,342) | PanfachDev |
 | Imperial Ambitions | $19.99 | 101 81% | 3.0k | $61k (exactly $60,570) | aoiti | |
 | Scorchlands | older | $11.99 | 115 89% | 3.5k | $41k (exactly $41,366) | Ringlab |
 | Mistward | $11.99 | 74 59% | 2.2k | $27k (exactly $26,618) | Sokpop Collective | |
 | Plentiful | · EA | $9.99 | 79 91% | 2.4k | $24k (exactly $23,676) | GabberGames |
 | Zen World | $9.99 | 51 80% | 1.5k | $15k (exactly $15,285) | Cartboard Games | |
 | Weather Dragger | $7.99 | 19 100% | 570 | $4.6k (exactly $4,554) | Geese & Goose | |
 | Isles & Tiles | $12.99 | 10 70% | 300 | $3.9k (exactly $3,897) | Birdworks | |
 | Deep Space Directive | · EA | $10.99 | 10 90% | 300 | $3.3k (exactly $3,297) | One Wheel Studio |
 | Settle and Battle: New Empires | $6.99 | 9 100% | 270 | $1.9k (exactly $1,887) | Attic Games Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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