Do I ship it?

GamesColony SimColony Sim + God Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a God Game Colony Sim?

Colony Sim + God Game

Of 43 developers who shipped a God Game Colony Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 82 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.1k, ×9.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $550k, ×886 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 82 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 82 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + God Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 43
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $772 → $18k → $2.1k → $2.2k → $26k → $68k (still earning) → $2.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + God Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 43
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $6.1k (exactly $6,100)
Top 25% $81k (exactly $80,946)
Top 5% $556k (exactly $556,277)
Developers, 2 yr 43
Released games 131
Announced 82
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
God Game
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim, God Game; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Resource Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 3D, Dark Humor
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 5,929 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $6.1k, 1 in 4 over $80k, 1 in 20 over $550k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 82 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SPORE™ older $19.99 66,871 92% 2.0M $40M (exactly $40,102,539) Maxis™
WorldBox - God Simulator · EA older $19.99 51,071 95% 1.5M $31M (exactly $30,627,279) Maxim Karpenko
Craft The World older $18.99 15,074 88% 452k $8.6M (exactly $8,587,658) Dekovir Entertainment, Sibear Games
The Universim older $29.99 8,465 79% 254k $7.6M (exactly $7,615,960) Crytivo
Stonehearth older $19.99 10,652 76% 320k $6.4M (exactly $6,388,004) Radiant Entertainment
War for the Overworld older $29.99 6,495 85% 195k $5.8M (exactly $5,843,552) Brightrock Games
Rise to Ruins older $14.99 7,234 87% 217k $3.3M (exactly $3,253,130) Raymond Doerr
Reus 2 older $24.99 2,133 94% 64k $1.6M (exactly $1,599,110) Abbey Games
Sapiens · EA older $24.99 2,052 80% 62k $1.5M (exactly $1,538,384) Majic Jungle
The Settlers: New Allies older $39.99 1,175 49% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,409,648) Ubisoft Düsseldorf
Sintopia $34.99 951 80% 29k $998k (exactly $998,265) Piraknights Games
Gold Gold Adventure Gold $24.99 907 70% 27k $680k (exactly $679,978) Can Can Can a Man
Roman Triumph: Survival City Builder $24.99 742 83% 22k $556k (exactly $556,277) Coreffect Interactive
Fata Deum - The God Sim · EA $29.99 410 59% 12k $369k (exactly $368,877) 42 Bits Entertainment
Ecosystem $19.99 601 76% 18k $360k (exactly $360,420) Tom Johnson
Planetary Life · EA $11.99 912 94% 27k $328k (exactly $328,046) Sotenbox
Sinner Maker · EA $9.66 545 91% 16k $158k (exactly $157,941) Pantokrator
Mars Attracts · EA $24.99 209 91% 6.3k $157k (exactly $156,687) Outlier
STARIO: Haven Tower · EA $13.99 280 93% 8.4k $118k (exactly $117,516) Stargate Games
Pandora's Toybox $9.99 372 83% 11k $111k (exactly $111,488) BetaLab

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.