Do I ship it?

GamesOpen WorldOpen World + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Open World game?

Open World + Collectathon

Of 152 developers who shipped a Collectathon Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 239 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×2.0 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $400k, ×269 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 239 games are announced against 86 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 239 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 152
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $2.5k → $2.3k → $1.8k → $4.3k → $4.2k → $3.2k (still earning) → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 152
Bottom 30% $446 (exactly $446)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,992)
Top 25% $38k (exactly $37,781)
Top 5% $402k (exactly $402,399)
Developers, 2 yr 152
Released games 420
Announced 239
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Collectathon; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Adventure, Sandbox
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Colorful, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 21,054 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $37k, 1 in 20 over $400k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 81 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 239 games are announced against 86 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
A Hat in Time older $29.99 42,863 97% 1.3M $39M (exactly $38,563,841) Gears for Breakfast
SpongeBob SquarePants: Battle for Bikini Bottom - Rehydrated older $29.99 14,439 94% 433k $13M (exactly $12,990,768) Purple Lamp
LEGO® Batman™: The Videogame older $19.99 12,850 89% 386k $7.7M (exactly $7,706,145) Traveller's Tales
Supraland older $19.99 12,376 95% 371k $7.4M (exactly $7,421,887) Supra Games
LEGO® DC Super-Villains older $39.99 5,798 91% 174k $7.0M (exactly $6,955,861) TT Games, Feral Interactive (Mac)
Cassette Beasts older $19.99 8,976 94% 269k $5.4M (exactly $5,382,907) Bytten Studio
Atelier Yumia: The Alchemist of Memories & the Envisioned Land $69.99 2,534 64% 76k $5.3M (exactly $5,320,640) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Elin · EA $19.99 8,406 93% 252k $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) Lafrontier
SimplePlanes older $12.99 9,811 93% 294k $3.8M (exactly $3,823,347) Jundroo, LLC
SpongeBob SquarePants: The Cosmic Shake older $39.99 3,129 92% 94k $3.8M (exactly $3,753,861) Purple Lamp
Yooka-Replaylee $29.99 1,045 92% 31k $940k (exactly $940,186) Playtonic Games
Sledding Game · EA $7.99 2,915 96% 87k $699k (exactly $698,726) The Sledding Corporation
Sapphire Safari · EA $12.99 1,653 92% 50k $644k (exactly $644,174) Kinky Fridays
Funi Raccoon Game $11.99 1,683 99% 50k $605k (exactly $605,375) Crayon, Kit
Adorable Adventures $19.99 698 93% 21k $419k (exactly $418,591) Wild Sheep Studio
Mika and The Witch's Mountain $19.99 671 86% 20k $402k (exactly $402,399) Chibig, Nukefist
Mr. Sleepy Man $19.99 636 98% 19k $381k (exactly $381,409) Devin Santi
Biped 2 $14.99 813 71% 24k $366k (exactly $365,606) META Publishing, NEXT Studios, PlayJoy… (META Publishing, NEXT Studios, PlayJoy Studios)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.