Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Class-Based

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Class-Based Open World game?

Open World + Class-Based

Of 37 developers who shipped a Class-Based Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 100 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×2.4 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.1M, ×1427 the market median. Revenue is up 460% on the market; 100 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 460% on the market, 100 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Class-Based
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $14k → $1.8k → $898 → $1.6k → $9.0k → $3.6k (still earning) → $96k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Class-Based: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,597)
Top 25% $69k (exactly $68,703)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 96
Announced 100
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 460% on the market, supply 110% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Class-Based
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Class-Based; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Character Customization
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $21.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $21.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 68,977 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $68k, 1 in 20 over $2.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 6 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 100 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

The Elder Scrolls® Online 2017 · $81M WARDOGS 2026 · EA · $70M Visions of Mana 2024 · $3.8M PULSAR: Lost Colony 2021 · $2.6M Satellite Reign 2015 · $2.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Elder Scrolls® Online older $19.99 134,421 82% 4.0M $81M (exactly $80,612,274) ZeniMax Online Studios
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Visions of Mana older $59.99 2,117 76% 64k $3.8M (exactly $3,809,965) Square Enix
PULSAR: Lost Colony older $19.99 4,409 89% 132k $2.6M (exactly $2,644,077) Leafy Games
Satellite Reign older $29.99 2,619 75% 79k $2.4M (exactly $2,356,314) 5 Lives Studios
SpiritVale · EA $14.99 4,755 48% 143k $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324) Baikun Interactive
Final Fantasy III (3D Remake) older $15.99 3,011 81% 90k $1.4M (exactly $1,444,377) Square Enix
Three Kingdoms Mushouden $24.99 1,876 72% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,406,437) NanBei Studio
Erenshor · EA $19.99 2,153 94% 65k $1.3M (exactly $1,291,154) Burgee Media
Guns of Icarus Online older $4.99 8,245 91% 247k $1.2M (exactly $1,234,276) Muse Games
Dimraeth · EA $21.99 889 80% 27k $586k (exactly $586,473) Mudtek
Kingdom of Night $19.99 326 86% 9.8k $196k (exactly $195,502) Friends of Safety
Din's Champion $19.99 160 85% 4.8k $96k (exactly $95,952) Soldak Entertainment
Afallon · EA $11.99 262 79% 7.9k $94k (exactly $94,241) Stargazing interactive
Second Sun $19.99 115 69% 3.5k $69k (exactly $68,966) Grey Wolf Entertainment
Heroes of the Seven Islands $11.99 191 100% 5.7k $69k (exactly $68,703) Rap2h

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.