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Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Open World game?
Open World + Choose Your Own Adventure
Of 137 developers who shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 338 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×2.1 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×125 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 338 games are announced against 76 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $420 (exactly $420) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.1k (exactly $3,146) |
| Top 25% | $12k (exactly $12,163) |
| Top 5% | $187k (exactly $186,601) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 137 |
| Released games | 524 |
| Announced | 338 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Choose Your Own Adventure
- effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, Choose Your Own Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, RPG
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Story Rich, Third Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 138,873 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 86 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 338 games are announced against 76 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
DayZ 2018 · $582M 
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey 2018 · $310M 
Crimson Desert Enhanced 2026 · $242M 
Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2018 · $129M 
The Elder Scrolls® Online 2017 · $81M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | DayZ | older | $49.99 | 387,850 78% | 12M | $582M (exactly $581,658,645) | Bohemia Interactive |
| | Assassin's Creed® Odyssey | older | $59.99 | 172,149 89% | 5.2M | $310M (exactly $309,816,555) | Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai) |
| | Crimson Desert Enhanced | $69.99 | 115,056 83% | 3.5M | $242M (exactly $241,583,083) | Pearl Abyss | |
| | Kingdom Come: Deliverance | older | $29.99 | 143,303 83% | 4.3M | $129M (exactly $128,929,709) | Warhorse Studios |
| | The Elder Scrolls® Online | older | $19.99 | 134,421 82% | 4.0M | $81M (exactly $80,612,274) | ZeniMax Online Studios |
 | Anno 1800 | older | $59.99 | 29,854 81% | 896k | $54M (exactly $53,728,244) | Ubisoft Mainz |
 | Watch Dogs®: Legion | older | $59.99 | 11,891 56% | 357k | $21M (exactly $21,400,233) | Ubisoft Toronto |
 | Hero's Adventure: Road to Passion | older | $17.99 | 22,287 84% | 669k | $12M (exactly $12,028,294) | 半瓶醋工作室（Half Amateur Studio） |
 | Avorion | older | $24.99 | 13,001 90% | 390k | $9.7M (exactly $9,746,850) | Boxelware |
 | Mon Bazou | $15.99 | 19,922 97% | 598k | $9.6M (exactly $9,556,583) | Santa Goat | |
 | To Pixelia | $14.99 | 1,194 73% | 36k | $537k (exactly $536,942) | Pixeduo Studios | |
 | Caravanners | · EA | $17.99 | 712 35% | 21k | $384k (exactly $384,266) | Akif Akdemir |
 | Rise of Piracy | · EA | $15.99 | 520 77% | 16k | $249k (exactly $249,444) | IrishJohnGames |
 | Lugh World | · EA | $14.99 | 458 68% | 14k | $206k (exactly $205,963) | Lughsoft |
 | Rock Star Life Simulator | $12.49 | 498 85% | 15k | $187k (exactly $186,601) | HOGO Games | |
 | Kromlech | · EA | $29.99 | 136 65% | 4.1k | $122k (exactly $122,359) | Perun Creative |
 | City 20 | · EA | $19.99 | 197 72% | 5.9k | $118k (exactly $118,141) | Untold Games |
 | Near-Mage | $19.99 | 180 89% | 5.4k | $108k (exactly $107,946) | Stuck In Attic |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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