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Should I ship a Choices Matter Wargame?
Wargame + Choices Matter
Of 51 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 107 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $470k, ×750 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 107 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $599 (exactly $599) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.2k (exactly $2,155) |
| Top 25% | $32k (exactly $31,880) |
| Top 5% | $471k (exactly $470,812) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 51 |
| Released games | 141 |
| Announced | 107 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Wargame
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Wargame, Choices Matter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Tactical
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 66% positive over 28,716 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 107 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Wargame with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Inventory ManagementFair
- + Local MultiplayerFair
- + NavalFair
- + TabletopFair
- + LogicFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Real-TimePoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + StealthPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
Comparable games
This War of Mine 2014 · $49M 
Europa Universalis V 2025 · $46M 
Company of Heroes 3 2023 · $44M 
Last Train Home 2023 · $5.4M 
Total Conflict: Resistance 2023 · EA · $4.6M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | This War of Mine | older | $19.99 | 81,804 93% | 2.5M | $49M (exactly $49,057,859) | 11 bit studios |
| | Europa Universalis V | $59.99 | 25,353 66% | 761k | $46M (exactly $45,627,794) | Paradox Tinto | |
| | Company of Heroes 3 | older | $59.99 | 24,516 59% | 735k | $44M (exactly $44,121,445) | Relic Entertainment |
| | Last Train Home | older | $39.99 | 4,511 86% | 135k | $5.4M (exactly $5,411,847) | Ashborne Games |
| | Total Conflict: Resistance | · EA older | $29.99 | 5,089 74% | 153k | $4.6M (exactly $4,578,573) | Thunder Devs. |
 | Regiments | older | $29.99 | 2,822 87% | 85k | $2.5M (exactly $2,538,953) | Bird's Eye Games |
 | Solium Infernum | older | $39.99 | 1,571 88% | 47k | $1.9M (exactly $1,884,729) | League of Geeks |
 | Plebby Quest: The Crusades | older | $19.99 | 2,625 86% | 79k | $1.6M (exactly $1,574,212) | PiedPipers Team |
 | A Game of Thrones: The Board Game - Digital Edition | older | $19.99 | 1,705 71% | 51k | $1.0M (exactly $1,022,488) | Dire Wolf |
 | Company of Heroes 3: Final Stand | $29.99 | 1,015 49% | 30k | $913k (exactly $913,196) | Relic Entertainment | |
 | Burden of Command™ | $24.99 | 628 83% | 19k | $471k (exactly $470,812) | Green Tree Games LLC | |
 | Air Defender | · EA | $20.19 | 364 78% | 11k | $220k (exactly $220,475) | ROTOR3 |
 | Monarch : Medieval Remastered | $11.99 | 365 80% | 11k | $131k (exactly $131,290) | Mr.Lordy | |
 | Victory at Sea Atlantic - World War II Naval Warfare | $39.99 | 92 60% | 2.8k | $110k (exactly $110,372) | Evil Twin Artworks | |
 | Welcome Back, Commander | $14.99 | 230 80% | 6.9k | $103k (exactly $103,431) | S.C. 16 BIT NIGHTS S.R.L. | |
 | Mage and Monsters II | $8.99 | 372 82% | 11k | $100k (exactly $100,328) | Lasse Zacho Malver | |
 | Mr. President | $19.99 | 162 75% | 4.9k | $97k (exactly $97,151) | Exia Labs | |
 | Becoming Saint | $14.99 | 135 64% | 4.1k | $61k (exactly $60,710) | Open Lab Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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