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Should I ship a Character Customization Open World game?
Open World + Character Customization
Of 392 developers who shipped a Character Customization Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,092 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $12k, ×8.1 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $7.0M, ×4732 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 1,092 games are announced against 220 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.4k (exactly $1,439) |
|---|---|
| Median | $12k (exactly $12,126) |
| Top 25% | $267k (exactly $267,466) |
| Top 5% | $7.1M (exactly $7,088,414) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 392 |
| Released games | 1,221 |
| Announced | 1,092 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $14.33 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Character Customization
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, Character Customization; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Exploration, Action
- Price point
- $14.33 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.33.
The top 10 games average 78% positive over 1,126,192 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 5 in 10 of the 217 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,092 games are announced against 220 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Cyberpunk 2077 2020 · $1.6B 
ELDEN RING 2022 · $1.5B 
DARK SOULS™ III 2016 · $500M 
Hogwarts Legacy 2023 · $495M 
7 Days to Die 2024 · $369M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Cyberpunk 2077 | older | $59.99 | 883,400 87% | 27M | $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | ELDEN RING | older | $59.99 | 831,470 93% | 25M | $1.5B (exactly $1,496,396,559) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
| | DARK SOULS™ III | older | $59.99 | 278,034 94% | 8.3M | $500M (exactly $500,377,790) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
| | Hogwarts Legacy | older | $59.99 | 274,801 89% | 8.2M | $495M (exactly $494,559,360) | Avalanche Software |
| | 7 Days to Die | older | $44.99 | 273,589 87% | 8.2M | $369M (exactly $369,263,073) | The Fun Pimps |
 | ARC Raiders | $39.99 | 299,346 82% | 9.0M | $359M (exactly $359,125,396) | Embark Studios | |
 | Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord | older | $49.99 | 230,490 87% | 6.9M | $346M (exactly $345,665,853) | TaleWorlds Entertainment |
 | Monster Hunter: World | older | $29.99 | 317,068 89% | 9.5M | $285M (exactly $285,266,080) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
 | Need for Speed™ Heat | older | $69.99 | 128,933 84% | 3.9M | $271M (exactly $270,720,620) | Ghost Games |
 | The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition | older | $39.99 | 219,271 94% | 6.6M | $263M (exactly $263,059,419) | Bethesda Game Studios |
 | Monster Hunter Wilds | $39.99 | 200,984 52% | 6.0M | $241M (exactly $241,120,505) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. | |
 | Schedule I | · EA | $19.99 | 288,939 97% | 8.7M | $173M (exactly $173,276,718) | TVGS |
 | SCUM | $44.99 | 98,554 74% | 3.0M | $133M (exactly $133,018,334) | Gamepires | |
 | Dune: Awakening | $49.99 | 66,844 71% | 2.0M | $100M (exactly $100,245,947) | Funcom | |
 | The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion Remastered | $49.99 | 59,690 76% | 1.8M | $90M (exactly $89,517,093) | Bethesda Game Studios, Virtuos | |
 | WUCHANG: Fallen Feathers | $49.99 | 44,865 58% | 1.3M | $67M (exactly $67,284,040) | Leenzee | |
 | Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 | $69.99 | 21,633 59% | 649k | $45M (exactly $45,422,810) | Asobo Studio | |
 | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon | $44.99 | 33,560 87% | 1.0M | $45M (exactly $45,295,932) | Questline | |
 | Nioh 3 | $69.99 | 11,777 78% | 353k | $25M (exactly $24,728,167) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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