Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Card Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Card Game Open World game?

Open World + Card Game

Of 20 developers who shipped a Card Game Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.2k, ×4.8 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $630k, ×423 the market median. Revenue is up 1025% on the market; 50 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 1025% on the market, 50 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Card Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.6k → $41k → $450 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Card Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $7.2k (exactly $7,194)
Top 25% $56k (exactly $55,744)
Top 5% $634k (exactly $634,151)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 57
Announced 50
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1025% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Card Game; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, RPG, Sandbox
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 4,045 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $7.2k, 1 in 4 over $55k, 1 in 20 over $630k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Thronebreaker: The Witcher Tales 2018 · $9.4M Kingdoms Reborn 2020 · EA · $5.3M Black Book 2021 · $4.0M FINAL FANTASY VIII - REMASTERED 2019 · $2.9M FINAL FANTASY VIII 2013 · $2.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Thronebreaker: The Witcher Tales older $19.99 15,665 89% 470k $9.4M (exactly $9,394,300) CD PROJEKT RED
Kingdoms Reborn · EA older $19.99 8,862 90% 266k $5.3M (exactly $5,314,541) Earthshine
Black Book older $24.99 5,306 93% 159k $4.0M (exactly $3,977,908) Morteshka
FINAL FANTASY VIII - REMASTERED older $19.99 4,822 75% 145k $2.9M (exactly $2,891,753) Square Enix
FINAL FANTASY VIII older $11.99 7,874 87% 236k $2.8M (exactly $2,832,278) Square Enix
Destiny of Immortal · EA $11.99 1,763 80% 53k $634k (exactly $634,151) LeiYun Games
Doodle God older $14.99 1,030 77% 31k $463k (exactly $463,191) JoyBits Ltd.
Sovereign Syndicate older $19.99 573 79% 17k $344k (exactly $343,628) Crimson Herring Studios
Card Cultivation $14.99 694 70% 21k $312k (exactly $312,092) DarkIndex
SkyBrew: Entropic Strategist $17.99 522 75% 16k $282k (exactly $281,723) ATRIC Games
9th Dawn Remake $15.99 514 86% 15k $247k (exactly $246,566) Valorware
Stash: A Card Looter $9.99 186 79% 5.6k $56k (exactly $55,744) WheeGaming
The Dead Await $12.99 108 67% 3.2k $42k (exactly $42,088) Shotx
Lords of Ravage $9.99 138 66% 4.1k $41k (exactly $41,359) Synthetic Domain
Claymores of the Lost Kingdom $9.99 83 67% 2.5k $25k (exactly $24,875) Ultaan Games
PLAYNESE: Master Japanese · EA $19.95 17 94% 510 $10k (exactly $10,174) Wynand Smit
Soul•Apocalypto $11.99 20 80% 600 $7.2k (exactly $7,194) 卜乙冈(Ploygon)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.