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Should I ship a Bullet Hell Open World game?
Open World + Bullet Hell
Of 37 developers who shipped a Bullet Hell Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 74 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $840, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. 74 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper, while revenue is down 10% on the market.
| Bottom 30% | $120 (exactly $120) |
|---|---|
| Median | $838 (exactly $838) |
| Top 25% | $2.7k (exactly $2,695) |
| Top 5% | $50k (exactly $49,858) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 37 |
| Released games | 114 |
| Announced | 74 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Bullet Hell
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, Bullet Hell; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Action Roguelike
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D, Top-Down
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 749 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $120. Nearly all of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 74 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
NieR:Automata™ 2017 · $138M 
Minishoot' Adventures 2024 · $3.5M 
Atomicrops 2020 · $2.3M 
Reassembly 2015 · $1.6M 
Hunt Down The Freeman 2018 · $1.1M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | NieR:Automata™ | older | $39.99 | 115,103 88% | 3.5M | $138M (exactly $138,089,069) | Square Enix, PlatinumGames Inc. |
| | Minishoot' Adventures | older | $14.99 | 7,818 97% | 235k | $3.5M (exactly $3,515,755) | SoulGame Studio |
| | Atomicrops | older | $14.99 | 5,134 93% | 154k | $2.3M (exactly $2,308,760) | Bird Bath Games |
| | Reassembly | older | $14.99 | 3,611 94% | 108k | $1.6M (exactly $1,623,867) | Anisoptera Games |
| | Hunt Down The Freeman | older | $9.99 | 3,785 54% | 114k | $1.1M (exactly $1,134,364) | Royal Rudius Entertainment |
 | Disney•Pixar Cars 2: The Video Game | older | $19.99 | 970 79% | 29k | $582k (exactly $581,709) | Avalanche Software |
 | Beat Hazard 3 | older | $19.99 | 586 84% | 18k | $351k (exactly $351,424) | Cold Beam Games |
 | Maniac | older | $4.99 | 1,754 90% | 53k | $263k (exactly $262,574) | Transhuman Design |
 | Tokyo 42 | older | $19.99 | 392 70% | 12k | $235k (exactly $235,082) | SMAC Games |
 | Nienix: Cosmic Warfare | older | $19.99 | 336 87% | 10k | $201k (exactly $201,499) | HolmCom |
 | SWAPMEAT | $16.49 | 304 86% | 9.1k | $150k (exactly $150,389) | One More Game | |
 | Dead Engine | $7.99 | 208 71% | 6.2k | $50k (exactly $49,858) | Chocolate Dungeon Games | |
 | RoadOut | $14.99 | 34 97% | 1.0k | $15k (exactly $15,290) | Rastrolabs Game Studio | |
 | Demonslayer AKA Me | $7.99 | 34 73% | 1.0k | $8.2k (exactly $8,150) | 晶尘工作室 | |
 | Dark Sword: The Light of Ainn | $3.99 | 63 93% | 1.9k | $7.5k (exactly $7,541) | MrDoth | |
 | ReTrime | $15.99 | 12 100% | 360 | $5.8k (exactly $5,756) | DoubleSystem | |
 | Orbitous | $2.99 | 43 93% | 1.3k | $3.9k (exactly $3,857) | Oddmin | |
 | Grabbus | · EA | $6.99 | 14 78% | 420 | $2.9k (exactly $2,936) | Foxoplasm, LLC |
 | The Last Humble Bee | $4.99 | 19 89% | 570 | $2.8k (exactly $2,844) | Jacob Weersing | |
 | Edge of Destruction | $4.99 | 18 77% | 540 | $2.7k (exactly $2,695) | Surin |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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