Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Bikes

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bikes Open World game?

Open World + Bikes

Only 12 developers shipped a Bikes Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, MAVRIX by Matt Jones, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×2.8 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×776 the market median. Revenue is up 780% on the market; 16 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 780% on the market, 16 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Bikes
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.7k → $356 → $239 → $6.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Bikes: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $4.2k (exactly $4,190)
Top 25% $206k (exactly $205,626)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,162,509)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 41
Announced 16
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 780% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Bikes
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Bikes
Price point
$10.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 2,449 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $4.2k, 1 in 4 over $200k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Riders Republic 2023 · $37M Descenders 2019 · $15M RIDE 4 2020 · $12M RIDE 3 2018 · $4.1M BMX Streets 2024 · $3.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Riders Republic older $39.99 30,458 81% 914k $37M (exactly $36,540,463) Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Pune, Ubisoft Odesa)
Descenders older $24.99 19,836 95% 595k $15M (exactly $14,871,049) RageSquid
RIDE 4 older $39.99 9,921 83% 298k $12M (exactly $11,902,224) Milestone S.r.l.
RIDE 3 older $29.99 4,534 84% 136k $4.1M (exactly $4,079,240) Milestone S.r.l.
BMX Streets older $24.99 4,366 80% 131k $3.3M (exactly $3,273,190) Mash Games
Ride 2 older $24.99 2,499 87% 75k $1.9M (exactly $1,873,500) Milestone S.r.l.
MX vs. ATV Reflex older $19.99 2,904 88% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,741,529) Rainbow Studios, THQ Nordic
Lonely Mountains: Downhill older $19.99 2,741 89% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,643,778) Megagon Industries
PIPE by BMX Streets older $9.99 5,351 92% 161k $1.6M (exactly $1,603,695) Mash Games
MX vs ATV All Out older $39.99 1,332 81% 40k $1.6M (exactly $1,598,000) Rainbow Studios
MAVRIX by Matt Jones $39.99 969 80% 29k $1.2M (exactly $1,162,509) Third Kind Games
Wheel World $19.99 735 90% 22k $441k (exactly $440,779) Messhof
LANESPLIT $17.99 381 77% 11k $206k (exactly $205,626) FunkyMouse
Food Delivery Simulator · EA $7.99 302 77% 9.1k $72k (exactly $72,389) Black Sea Studios
Swiftrace Canyon $11.99 18 100% 540 $6.5k (exactly $6,475) Optimotter
Tiny Whiny Island $3.99 35 85% 1.1k $4.2k (exactly $4,190) Marshlander Games
DA PAPER BOY $10.99 4 75% 120 $1.3k (exactly $1,319) 3D Dojo Studios
Sakura Drift $19.99 1 100% 30 $600 (exactly $600) Miki Games
Bike Park Simulator: BMX, Dirt Jump & MTB · EA $7.99 2 0% 60 $479 (exactly $479) Hard Shark Games
Bike Stunt 3D Freestyle $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) Nitx Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.