Do I ship it?

GamesBikesBikes + Motocross

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Motocross Bike game?

Bikes + Motocross

Only 12 developers shipped a Motocross Bike game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sledders, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 9 more are announced.

Verdict: long shot, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $3.9M, ×2626 the market median. Revenue is up 620% on the market; 9 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 620% on the market, 9 announced, ×1.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bikes + Motocross
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.7k → $1.5k → $239 → $3.1k → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bikes + Motocross: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $103k (exactly $102,981)
Top 5% $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 49
Announced 9
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 620% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bikes
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Motocross
effort 7 / 10 · low · bike physics plus track content

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Bikes, Motocross
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 5,200 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $960, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $3.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 9 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bikes with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  2. + Action-AdventureFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  3. + SimulationFair30 devs · median $1.5k · 29 announced
  4. + PvPFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  5. + Character CustomizationFair11 devs · median $1.5k · 10 announced
  6. + DrivingPoor odds14 devs · median $4.3k · 28 announced
  7. + CyclingPoor odds13 devs · median $4.2k · 21 announced
  8. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $4.2k · 16 announced
  9. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  10. + AdventurePoor odds20 devs · median $2.1k · 22 announced
  11. + RacingPoor odds37 devs · median $1.8k · 36 announced
  12. + ActionPoor odds23 devs · median $1.5k · 27 announced

All 21 pairs on the Bikes page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MX Bikes · EA older $34.99 35,684 94% 1.1M $37M (exactly $37,457,495) PiBoSo
Sledders $29.99 4,372 95% 131k $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488) Hanki Games
MX vs. ATV Reflex older $19.99 2,904 88% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,741,529) Rainbow Studios, THQ Nordic
TrackDayR · EA older $24.99 2,213 86% 66k $1.7M (exactly $1,659,086) MadCow S.r.l.
MX vs ATV All Out older $39.99 1,332 81% 40k $1.6M (exactly $1,598,000) Rainbow Studios
MXGP 2021 - The Official Motocross Videogame older $39.99 1,165 85% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,397,650) Milestone S.r.l.
Dakar Desert Rally older $29.99 1,475 56% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,327,058) Saber Porto Ltd.
RIDE 6 $59.99 549 68% 16k $988k (exactly $988,035) Milestone S.r.l.
Motorcycle Mechanic Simulator 2021 older $19.99 1,580 68% 47k $948k (exactly $947,526) Play2Chill S.A.
Monster Energy Supercross - The Official Videogame 6 older $49.99 512 71% 15k $768k (exactly $767,846) Milestone S.r.l.
VMX · EA $14.99 229 89% 6.9k $103k (exactly $102,981) Break Free Interactive
Stunt Bike Extreme $4.99 21 95% 630 $3.1k (exactly $3,144) Hyperkani
MX Bodycam Bikes Racing · EA $4.99 17 70% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) GLOBAL SCRIPTUM
MX Racing World $7.99 4 50% 120 $959 (exactly $959) Nitx Games
Dark Rally $6.99 4 50% 120 $839 (exactly $839) PLOP Studio
Sakura Drift $19.99 1 100% 30 $600 (exactly $600) Miki Games
Bike Stunt 3D Freestyle $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) Nitx Games
In A Wheel $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) ElyDev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.