Games › Bikes › Bikes + Cycling
Should I ship a Cycling Bike game?
Bikes + Cycling
Only 13 developers shipped a Cycling Bike game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, MAVRIX by Matt Jones, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×2.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×776 the market median. Revenue is up 3190% on the market; 21 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $479 (exactly $479) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.2k (exactly $4,190) |
| Top 25% | $103k (exactly $102,981) |
| Top 5% | $1.2M (exactly $1,162,509) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 13 |
| Released games | 54 |
| Announced | 21 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 3190% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- Bikes, Cycling; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sports, Racing, Adventure
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Third Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 3,053 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $480. 6 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Bikes with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SportsFair
- + Action-AdventureFair
- + SimulationFair
- + PvPFair
- + Character CustomizationFair
- + MotocrossLong shot
- + DrivingPoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + PhysicsPoor odds
- + AdventurePoor odds
- + RacingPoor odds
- + ActionPoor odds
Comparable games
Riders Republic 2023 · $37M 
Descenders 2019 · $15M 
Lonely Mountains: Downhill 2019 · $1.6M 
MAVRIX by Matt Jones 2026 · $1.2M 
Pro Cycling Manager 25 2025 · $595k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Riders Republic | older | $39.99 | 30,458 81% | 914k | $37M (exactly $36,540,463) | Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Pune, Ubisoft Odesa) |
| | Descenders | older | $24.99 | 19,836 95% | 595k | $15M (exactly $14,871,049) | RageSquid |
| | Lonely Mountains: Downhill | older | $19.99 | 2,741 89% | 82k | $1.6M (exactly $1,643,778) | Megagon Industries |
| | MAVRIX by Matt Jones | $39.99 | 969 80% | 29k | $1.2M (exactly $1,162,509) | Third Kind Games | |
| | Pro Cycling Manager 25 | $39.99 | 496 75% | 15k | $595k (exactly $595,051) | Cyanide Studio | |
 | Pro Cycling Manager 2022 | older | $39.99 | 433 85% | 13k | $519k (exactly $519,470) | Cyanide Studio |
 | Monster Energy Supercross - The Official Videogame | older | $19.99 | 817 84% | 25k | $490k (exactly $489,955) | Milestone S.r.l. |
 | Pro Cycling Manager 2023 | older | $39.99 | 388 74% | 12k | $465k (exactly $465,484) | Cyanide Studio |
 | Wheel World | $19.99 | 735 90% | 22k | $441k (exactly $440,779) | Messhof | |
 | Pro Cycling Manager 2021 | older | $39.99 | 344 77% | 10k | $413k (exactly $412,697) | Cyanide Studio |
 | Tour de France 2025 | $39.99 | 182 77% | 5.5k | $218k (exactly $218,345) | Cyanide Studio | |
 | Pro Cycling Manager 26 | $39.99 | 116 65% | 3.5k | $139k (exactly $139,165) | Cyanide Studio | |
 | VMX | · EA | $14.99 | 229 89% | 6.9k | $103k (exactly $102,981) | Break Free Interactive |
 | Tour de France 2026 | $39.99 | 64 75% | 1.9k | $77k (exactly $76,781) | Cyanide Studios | |
 | Motorcycle Night Ride | · EA | $5.99 | 213 76% | 6.4k | $38k (exactly $38,276) | Suber Game Studio, Room Games |
 | Tiny Whiny Island | $3.99 | 35 85% | 1.1k | $4.2k (exactly $4,190) | Marshlander Games | |
 | pedalverse | $4.99 | 14 42% | 420 | $2.1k (exactly $2,096) | FuristicStudio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.