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Should I ship a Physics Bike game?
Bikes + Physics
Of 23 developers who shipped a Physics Bike game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×1.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×776 the market median. Revenue is up 455% on the market; 21 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $600 (exactly $600) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.1k (exactly $2,096) |
| Top 25% | $38k (exactly $38,276) |
| Top 5% | $1.2M (exactly $1,162,509) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 23 |
| Released games | 67 |
| Announced | 21 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 455% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- Bikes, Physics; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Racing, Sports, Character Customization
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
- Art
- 8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, First-Person, Third Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 7,576 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Bikes with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SportsFair
- + Action-AdventureFair
- + SimulationFair
- + PvPFair
- + Character CustomizationFair
- + MotocrossLong shot
- + DrivingPoor odds
- + CyclingPoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + AdventurePoor odds
- + RacingPoor odds
- + ActionPoor odds
Comparable games
MX Bikes 2019 · EA · $37M 
Descenders 2019 · $15M 
RIDE 5 2023 · $5.1M 
Sledders 2025 · $3.9M 
BMX Streets 2024 · $3.3M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | MX Bikes | · EA older | $34.99 | 35,684 94% | 1.1M | $37M (exactly $37,457,495) | PiBoSo |
| | Descenders | older | $24.99 | 19,836 95% | 595k | $15M (exactly $14,871,049) | RageSquid |
| | RIDE 5 | older | $49.99 | 3,368 82% | 101k | $5.1M (exactly $5,050,990) | Milestone S.r.l. |
| | Sledders | $29.99 | 4,372 95% | 131k | $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488) | Hanki Games | |
| | BMX Streets | older | $24.99 | 4,366 80% | 131k | $3.3M (exactly $3,273,190) | Mash Games |
 | Trials® Rising | older | $19.99 | 2,860 62% | 86k | $1.7M (exactly $1,715,142) | RedLynx |
 | Lonely Mountains: Downhill | older | $19.99 | 2,741 89% | 82k | $1.6M (exactly $1,643,778) | Megagon Industries |
 | MAVRIX by Matt Jones | $39.99 | 969 80% | 29k | $1.2M (exactly $1,162,509) | Third Kind Games | |
 | RIDE 6 | $59.99 | 549 68% | 16k | $988k (exactly $988,035) | Milestone S.r.l. | |
 | MotoGP™25 | $49.99 | 592 74% | 18k | $888k (exactly $887,822) | Milestone S.r.l. | |
 | MotoGP™26 | $59.99 | 225 64% | 6.8k | $405k (exactly $404,932) | Milestone S.r.l. | |
 | LANESPLIT | $17.99 | 381 77% | 11k | $206k (exactly $205,626) | FunkyMouse | |
 | VMX | · EA | $14.99 | 229 89% | 6.9k | $103k (exactly $102,981) | Break Free Interactive |
 | Motorcycle Night Ride | · EA | $5.99 | 213 76% | 6.4k | $38k (exactly $38,276) | Suber Game Studio, Room Games |
 | Escape from Ghosts | $12.99 | 28 71% | 840 | $11k (exactly $10,912) | Alex8778 | |
 | Swiftrace Canyon | $11.99 | 18 100% | 540 | $6.5k (exactly $6,475) | Optimotter |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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