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Should I ship an Adventure Bike game?
Bikes + Adventure
Of 20 developers who shipped an Adventure Bike game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×1.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $960; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×776 the market median. Revenue is up 65% on the market; 22 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $959 (exactly $959) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.1k (exactly $2,096) |
| Top 25% | $14k (exactly $14,398) |
| Top 5% | $1.2M (exactly $1,162,509) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 20 |
| Released games | 58 |
| Announced | 22 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- Bikes, Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Cycling, Sports, Action
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Third Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 2,452 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $960. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Bikes with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SportsFair
- + Action-AdventureFair
- + SimulationFair
- + PvPFair
- + Character CustomizationFair
- + MotocrossLong shot
- + DrivingPoor odds
- + CyclingPoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + PhysicsPoor odds
- + RacingPoor odds
- + ActionPoor odds
Comparable games
MAVRIX by Matt Jones 2026 · $1.2M 
HOT WHEELS UNLEASHED™ 2 - Turbocharged 2023 · $1.1M 
Pro Cycling Manager 25 2025 · $595k 
Wheel World 2025 · $441k 
Pro Cycling Manager 2024 2024 · $408k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | MAVRIX by Matt Jones | $39.99 | 969 80% | 29k | $1.2M (exactly $1,162,509) | Third Kind Games | |
| | HOT WHEELS UNLEASHED™ 2 - Turbocharged | older | $39.99 | 953 77% | 29k | $1.1M (exactly $1,143,314) | Milestone S.r.l. |
| | Pro Cycling Manager 25 | $39.99 | 496 75% | 15k | $595k (exactly $595,051) | Cyanide Studio | |
| | Wheel World | $19.99 | 735 90% | 22k | $441k (exactly $440,779) | Messhof | |
| | Pro Cycling Manager 2024 | older | $39.99 | 340 81% | 10k | $408k (exactly $407,898) | Cyanide Studio |
 | MXGP - The Official Motocross Videogame | older | $9.99 | 1,289 82% | 39k | $386k (exactly $386,313) | Milestone S.r.l. |
 | Knights And Bikes | older | $19.99 | 481 86% | 14k | $288k (exactly $288,456) | Foam Sword |
 | Turbo Kid | older | $19.99 | 402 92% | 12k | $241k (exactly $241,079) | Outerminds Inc. |
 | Aquabike Rush | $39.99 | 87 91% | 2.6k | $104k (exactly $104,374) | Aquabike | |
 | BIKEOUT | older | $24.99 | 75 42% | 2.3k | $56k (exactly $56,228) | Black Swan |
 | 風雨来記5 | $59.99 | 8 87% | 240 | $14k (exactly $14,398) | Nippon Ichi Software, Inc. | |
 | [Southern Fjords] Newspaper Day | $3.99 | 87 68% | 2.6k | $10k (exactly $10,414) | Southern Fjords Games | |
 | Study § Steady | $24.99 | 12 75% | 360 | $9.0k (exactly $8,996) | Marmalade | |
 | Tiny Whiny Island | $3.99 | 35 85% | 1.1k | $4.2k (exactly $4,190) | Marshlander Games | |
 | Moxter | $9.99 | 9 55% | 270 | $2.7k (exactly $2,697) | Aisten Lab, Dalton Bastos | |
 | pedalverse | $4.99 | 14 42% | 420 | $2.1k (exactly $2,096) | FuristicStudio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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