Do I ship it?

GamesBikesBikes + Action-Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Action-Adventure Bike game?

Bikes + Action-Adventure

Only 11 developers shipped an Action-Adventure Bike game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sledders, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×1.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $600. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 11 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 70% on the market, 11 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bikes + Action-Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $505 → $7.2k → $600 → $2.5k → $600 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bikes + Action-Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $600 (exactly $600)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Top 25% $441k (exactly $440,779)
Top 5% $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 27
Announced 11
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bikes
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Bikes, Action-Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 6,161 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $440k, 1 in 20 over $3.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 11 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bikes with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  2. + SimulationFair30 devs · median $1.5k · 29 announced
  3. + PvPFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  4. + Character CustomizationFair11 devs · median $1.5k · 10 announced
  5. + MotocrossLong shot12 devs · median $959 · 9 announced
  6. + DrivingPoor odds14 devs · median $4.3k · 28 announced
  7. + CyclingPoor odds13 devs · median $4.2k · 21 announced
  8. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $4.2k · 16 announced
  9. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  10. + AdventurePoor odds20 devs · median $2.1k · 22 announced
  11. + RacingPoor odds37 devs · median $1.8k · 36 announced
  12. + ActionPoor odds23 devs · median $1.5k · 27 announced

All 21 pairs on the Bikes page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sledders $29.99 4,372 95% 131k $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488) Hanki Games
MAVRIX by Matt Jones $39.99 969 80% 29k $1.2M (exactly $1,162,509) Third Kind Games
Wheel World $19.99 735 90% 22k $441k (exactly $440,779) Messhof
Knights And Bikes older $19.99 481 86% 14k $288k (exactly $288,456) Foam Sword
Turbo Kid older $19.99 402 92% 12k $241k (exactly $241,079) Outerminds Inc.
Minit Fun Racer older $2.99 253 97% 7.6k $23k (exactly $22,694) JW, Kitty, Jukio, Dom
Icycle: On Thin Ice older $6.99 107 96% 3.2k $22k (exactly $22,438) Damp Gnat
Moto Rush Reborn $12.99 43 97% 1.3k $17k (exactly $16,757) Baltoro Games
Homeland older $5.99 40 65% 1.2k $7.2k (exactly $7,188) HeadHunters games
Synthwave Racers older $5.99 18 100% 540 $3.2k (exactly $3,235) Corrtex Games
Moxter $9.99 9 55% 270 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) Aisten Lab, Dalton Bastos
MX Bodycam Bikes Racing · EA $4.99 17 70% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) GLOBAL SCRIPTUM
Vicious Cycle $7.99 8 87% 240 $1.9k (exactly $1,918) Brave Traveller Games
Bearly Delivered $5.00 4 100% 120 $600 (exactly $600) Big Seat Studios
Sakura Drift $19.99 1 100% 30 $600 (exactly $600) Miki Games
Bicycle Mechanic Simulator BMS $2.99 3 0% 90 $269 (exactly $269) GameDeveloper20

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.