Do I ship it?

Games › Bikes › Bikes + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation Bike game?

Bikes + Simulation

Of 30 developers who shipped a Simulation Bike game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $270. Revenue is up 205% on the market; 29 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 205% on the market, 29 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bikes + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $9.9k → $479 → $2.1k → $11k → $2.5k → $13k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bikes + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $72k (exactly $72,389)
Top 5% $888k (exactly $887,822)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 131
Announced 29
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 205% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bikes
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Bikes, Simulation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sports, Racing, PvP
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, 3D, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 7,307 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $72k, 1 in 20 over $880k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 6 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bikes with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  2. + Action-AdventureFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  3. + PvPFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  4. + Character CustomizationFair11 devs · median $1.5k · 10 announced
  5. + MotocrossLong shot12 devs · median $959 · 9 announced
  6. + DrivingPoor odds14 devs · median $4.3k · 28 announced
  7. + CyclingPoor odds13 devs · median $4.2k · 21 announced
  8. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $4.2k · 16 announced
  9. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  10. + AdventurePoor odds20 devs · median $2.1k · 22 announced
  11. + RacingPoor odds37 devs · median $1.8k · 36 announced
  12. + ActionPoor odds23 devs · median $1.5k · 27 announced

All 21 pairs on the Bikes page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

MX Bikes 2019 · EA · $37M Riders Republic 2023 · $37M Descenders 2019 · $15M RIDE 4 2020 · $12M RIDE 5 2023 · $5.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MX Bikes · EA older $34.99 35,684 94% 1.1M $37M (exactly $37,457,495) PiBoSo
Riders Republic older $39.99 30,458 81% 914k $37M (exactly $36,540,463) Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Pune, Ubisoft Odesa)
Descenders older $24.99 19,836 95% 595k $15M (exactly $14,871,049) RageSquid
RIDE 4 older $39.99 9,921 83% 298k $12M (exactly $11,902,224) Milestone S.r.l.
RIDE 5 older $49.99 3,368 82% 101k $5.1M (exactly $5,050,990) Milestone S.r.l.
RIDE 3 older $29.99 4,534 84% 136k $4.1M (exactly $4,079,240) Milestone S.r.l.
Sledders $29.99 4,372 95% 131k $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488) Hanki Games
BMX Streets older $24.99 4,366 80% 131k $3.3M (exactly $3,273,190) Mash Games
Ride 2 older $24.99 2,499 87% 75k $1.9M (exactly $1,873,500) Milestone S.r.l.
MX vs. ATV Reflex older $19.99 2,904 88% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,741,529) Rainbow Studios, THQ Nordic
RIDE 6 $59.99 549 68% 16k $988k (exactly $988,035) Milestone S.r.l.
MotoGP™25 $49.99 592 74% 18k $888k (exactly $887,822) Milestone S.r.l.
Pro Cycling Manager 25 $39.99 496 75% 15k $595k (exactly $595,051) Cyanide Studio
MotoGP™26 $59.99 225 64% 6.8k $405k (exactly $404,932) Milestone S.r.l.
VRacer Hoverbike $29.99 307 89% 9.2k $276k (exactly $276,208) VertexBreakers
Tour de France 2025 $39.99 182 77% 5.5k $218k (exactly $218,345) Cyanide Studio
LANESPLIT $17.99 381 77% 11k $206k (exactly $205,626) FunkyMouse
Pro Cycling Manager 26 $39.99 116 65% 3.5k $139k (exactly $139,165) Cyanide Studio
Aquabike Rush $39.99 87 91% 2.6k $104k (exactly $104,374) Aquabike

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.