Do I ship it?

Games › Bikes › Bikes + Sports

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sports Bike game?

Bikes + Sports

Of 25 developers who shipped a Sports Bike game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×1.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $300. Revenue is up 1335% on the market; 18 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 1335% on the market, 18 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bikes + Sports
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.6k → $8.2k → $1.0k → $2.1k → $38k → $2.5k → $17k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bikes + Sports: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Top 25% $206k (exactly $205,626)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,162,509)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 128
Announced 18
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1335% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bikes
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Bikes, Sports; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Racing, Simulation, Character Customization
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, Third Person, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 8,808 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $200k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 5 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bikes with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Action-AdventureFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  2. + SimulationFair30 devs · median $1.5k · 29 announced
  3. + PvPFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  4. + Character CustomizationFair11 devs · median $1.5k · 10 announced
  5. + MotocrossLong shot12 devs · median $959 · 9 announced
  6. + DrivingPoor odds14 devs · median $4.3k · 28 announced
  7. + CyclingPoor odds13 devs · median $4.2k · 21 announced
  8. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $4.2k · 16 announced
  9. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  10. + AdventurePoor odds20 devs · median $2.1k · 22 announced
  11. + RacingPoor odds37 devs · median $1.8k · 36 announced
  12. + ActionPoor odds23 devs · median $1.5k · 27 announced

All 21 pairs on the Bikes page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Riders Republic 2023 · $37M Descenders 2019 · $15M RIDE 4 2020 · $12M RIDE 5 2023 · $5.1M RIDE 3 2018 · $4.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Riders Republic older $39.99 30,458 81% 914k $37M (exactly $36,540,463) Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Pune, Ubisoft Odesa)
Descenders older $24.99 19,836 95% 595k $15M (exactly $14,871,049) RageSquid
RIDE 4 older $39.99 9,921 83% 298k $12M (exactly $11,902,224) Milestone S.r.l.
RIDE 5 older $49.99 3,368 82% 101k $5.1M (exactly $5,050,990) Milestone S.r.l.
RIDE 3 older $29.99 4,534 84% 136k $4.1M (exactly $4,079,240) Milestone S.r.l.
Sledders $29.99 4,372 95% 131k $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488) Hanki Games
BMX Streets older $24.99 4,366 80% 131k $3.3M (exactly $3,273,190) Mash Games
Ride 2 older $24.99 2,499 87% 75k $1.9M (exactly $1,873,500) Milestone S.r.l.
MX vs. ATV Reflex older $19.99 2,904 88% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,741,529) Rainbow Studios, THQ Nordic
Trials® Rising older $19.99 2,860 62% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,715,142) RedLynx
MAVRIX by Matt Jones $39.99 969 80% 29k $1.2M (exactly $1,162,509) Third Kind Games
RIDE 6 $59.99 549 68% 16k $988k (exactly $988,035) Milestone S.r.l.
MotoGP™25 $49.99 592 74% 18k $888k (exactly $887,822) Milestone S.r.l.
Pro Cycling Manager 25 $39.99 496 75% 15k $595k (exactly $595,051) Cyanide Studio
Wheel World $19.99 735 90% 22k $441k (exactly $440,779) Messhof
MotoGP™26 $59.99 225 64% 6.8k $405k (exactly $404,932) Milestone S.r.l.
VRacer Hoverbike $29.99 307 89% 9.2k $276k (exactly $276,208) VertexBreakers
Tour de France 2025 $39.99 182 77% 5.5k $218k (exactly $218,345) Cyanide Studio
LANESPLIT $17.99 381 77% 11k $206k (exactly $205,626) FunkyMouse

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.