Games › Open World › Open World + Base Building
Should I ship a Base Building Open World game?
Open World + Base Building
Of 369 developers who shipped a Base Building Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 932 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $27k, ×18 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $7.8M, ×5233 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 932 games are announced against 211 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $3.4k (exactly $3,358) |
|---|---|
| Median | $27k (exactly $26,618) |
| Top 25% | $407k (exactly $407,428) |
| Top 5% | $7.8M (exactly $7,839,086) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 369 |
| Released games | 1,001 |
| Announced | 932 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Base Building
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, Base Building; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sandbox, Building, Exploration
- Price point
- $14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 1,634,560 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $3.4k. 5 in 10 of the 174 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 932 games are announced against 211 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Valheim 2026 · $418M 
Palworld 2026 · $371M 
7 Days to Die 2024 · $369M 
Subnautica 2018 · $307M 
Satisfactory 2024 · $282M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Valheim | $29.99 | 464,893 94% | 14M | $418M (exactly $418,264,232) | Iron Gate AB | |
| | Palworld | $29.99 | 411,947 94% | 12M | $371M (exactly $370,628,716) | Pocketpair | |
| | 7 Days to Die | older | $44.99 | 273,589 87% | 8.2M | $369M (exactly $369,263,073) | The Fun Pimps |
| | Subnautica | older | $29.99 | 341,390 97% | 10M | $307M (exactly $307,148,583) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
| | Satisfactory | older | $39.99 | 234,993 97% | 7.0M | $282M (exactly $281,921,102) | Coffee Stain Studios |
 | ARK: Survival Evolved | older | $14.99 | 586,768 83% | 18M | $264M (exactly $263,869,570) | Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto… (Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto Studios, Virtual Basement LLC) |
 | Sons Of The Forest | older | $29.99 | 284,572 88% | 8.5M | $256M (exactly $256,029,428) | Endnight Games Ltd |
 | RimWorld | older | $34.99 | 208,693 97% | 6.3M | $219M (exactly $219,065,042) | Ludeon Studios |
 | Factorio | older | $35.00 | 191,814 97% | 5.8M | $201M (exactly $201,404,700) | Wube Software LTD. |
 | Raft | older | $19.99 | 323,481 93% | 9.7M | $194M (exactly $193,991,556) | Redbeet Interactive |
 | Schedule I | · EA | $19.99 | 288,939 97% | 8.7M | $173M (exactly $173,276,718) | TVGS |
 | Subnautica 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 116,852 91% | 3.5M | $105M (exactly $105,131,744) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
 | Dune: Awakening | $49.99 | 66,844 71% | 2.0M | $100M (exactly $100,245,947) | Funcom | |
 | Scrap Mechanic | $28.99 | 109,429 92% | 3.3M | $95M (exactly $95,170,401) | Axolot Games | |
 | Assassin’s Creed Shadows | $69.99 | 34,953 75% | 1.0M | $73M (exactly $73,390,814) | Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine) | |
 | WARDOGS | · EA | $39.99 | 58,250 81% | 1.7M | $70M (exactly $69,882,525) | BULKHEAD |
 | Windrose | · EA | $29.99 | 47,893 86% | 1.4M | $43M (exactly $43,089,332) | Kraken Express |
 | Deadside | $24.99 | 34,560 76% | 1.0M | $26M (exactly $25,909,632) | Bad Pixel |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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