Do I ship it?

GamesOpen WorldOpen World + Automation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Automation Open World game?

Open World + Automation

Of 84 developers who shipped an Automation Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 219 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $38k, ×26 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $5.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $10M, ×7332 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 219 games are announced against 62 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 25.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 219 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Automation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 84
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $32k → $110k → $170k → $41k → $397k → $50k → $41k (still earning) → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Automation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 84
Bottom 30% $5.3k (exactly $5,273)
Median $38k (exactly $38,376)
Top 25% $515k (exactly $515,307)
Top 5% $11M (exactly $10,983,922)
Developers, 2 yr 84
Released games 198
Announced 219
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 170% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Automation
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Automation; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Sandbox, Crafting
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 784,488 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $5.3k, median $38k, 1 in 4 over $510k, 1 in 20 over $10M.

3 in 10 developers made under $5.3k. 5 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 219 games are announced against 62 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
Satisfactory older $39.99 234,993 97% 7.0M $282M (exactly $281,921,102) Coffee Stain Studios
Factorio older $35.00 191,814 97% 5.8M $201M (exactly $201,404,700) Wube Software LTD.
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
ASTRONEER older $29.99 118,844 91% 3.6M $107M (exactly $106,923,947) System Era Softworks
Dyson Sphere Program · EA older $19.99 83,523 97% 2.5M $50M (exactly $50,088,743) Youthcat Studio
The Planet Crafter older $23.99 68,855 96% 2.1M $50M (exactly $49,554,944) Miju Games
Stormworks: Build and Rescue older $24.99 54,649 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $40,970,355) Geometa
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
The Last Caretaker · EA $34.99 13,178 86% 395k $14M (exactly $13,832,947) Channel37 Ltd
Necesse $14.99 24,425 93% 733k $11M (exactly $10,983,922) Fair Games ApS
StarRupture · EA $19.99 12,333 80% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,396,100) Creepy Jar
Flotsam $24.99 4,308 80% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708) Pajama Llama Games
Solarpunk™ $22.99 3,492 81% 105k $2.4M (exactly $2,408,432) Cyberwave
SpaceCraft · EA $29.99 2,616 64% 78k $2.4M (exactly $2,353,615) Shiro Games
Sandustry · EA $14.99 4,805 97% 144k $2.2M (exactly $2,160,808) Lantto Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.