Do I ship it?

Games › Wargame › Wargame + Auto Battler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Auto Battler Wargame?

Wargame + Auto Battler

Of 66 developers who shipped an Auto Battler Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 89 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×164 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 89 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 89 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wargame + Auto Battler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 66
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $150 → $449 → $4.6k → $1.0k → $1.3k → $900 (still earning) → $600 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Wargame + Auto Battler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 66
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $7.5k (exactly $7,541)
Top 5% $103k (exactly $103,270)
Developers, 2 yr 66
Released games 153
Announced 89
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Auto Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Wargame, Auto Battler; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Roguelite
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 20,549 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $900, 1 in 4 over $7.5k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 89 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Wargame with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $4.6k · 20 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  3. + NavalFair37 devs · median $2.4k · 37 announced
  4. + TabletopFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $599 · 26 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $37k · 24 announced
  7. + Real-TimePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds43 devs · median $21k · 84 announced
  9. + StealthPoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds34 devs · median $17k · 59 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds24 devs · median $16k · 55 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds82 devs · median $14k · 142 announced

All 147 pairs on the Wargame page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Mechabellum 2024 · $8.0M Bad North: Jotunn Edition 2018 · $5.6M Dominions 5 - Warriors of the Faith 2017 · $2.3M Dominions 6 - Rise of the Pantokrator 2024 · $2.3M Warpips 2022 · $2.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mechabellum $14.99 17,856 84% 536k $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843) Game River
Bad North: Jotunn Edition older $14.99 12,344 93% 370k $5.6M (exactly $5,551,097) Plausible Concept, Oskar Stålberg
Dominions 5 - Warriors of the Faith older $39.99 1,924 94% 58k $2.3M (exactly $2,308,223) Illwinter Game Design
Dominions 6 - Rise of the Pantokrator older $44.99 1,686 90% 51k $2.3M (exactly $2,275,594) Illwinter Game Design
Warpips older $16.99 4,339 87% 130k $2.2M (exactly $2,211,588) Skirmish Mode Games
Ages of Conflict: World War Simulator · EA older $6.99 8,904 96% 267k $1.9M (exactly $1,867,169) JoySpark Games
Line War older $24.99 1,076 80% 32k $807k (exactly $806,677) Studio Centurion
Buggos older $9.99 1,204 88% 36k $361k (exactly $360,839) Intrepid Marmot
There Are No Orcs $8.99 1,188 93% 36k $320k (exactly $320,404) BaseTrade Studio
Dice Kingdoms older $14.99 580 83% 17k $261k (exactly $260,826) Fivemid Studio
NationWar2:Chronicle $16.99 378 78% 11k $193k (exactly $192,667) Yiming
Flowers and Deities $12.99 265 90% 8.0k $103k (exactly $103,270) Chill Winter Studio
Mage and Monsters II $8.99 372 82% 11k $100k (exactly $100,328) Lasse Zacho Malver
D.O.T. Defence $14.99 196 85% 5.9k $88k (exactly $88,141) Rattleaxe Games
Becoming Saint $14.99 135 64% 4.1k $61k (exactly $60,710) Open Lab Games
Vestiges: Fallen Tribes $24.99 36 80% 1.1k $27k (exactly $26,989) WanadevStudio
Rising Army $11.99 57 64% 1.7k $21k (exactly $20,503) Arkbits
Full Metal Sergeant 2 $9.99 66 89% 2.0k $20k (exactly $19,780) CarloC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.