Do I ship it?

GamesAsynchronous MultiplayerAsynchronous Multiplayer + Turn-Based Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Asynchronous Multiplayer Turn-Based Strategy?

Asynchronous Multiplayer + Turn-Based Strategy

Of 43 developers who shipped an Asynchronous Multiplayer Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 54 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $240. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 54 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 54 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Asynchronous Multiplayer + Turn-Based Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 43
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $0 → $2.4k → $1.2k → $13k → $29k → $2.9k (still earning) → $7.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Asynchronous Multiplayer + Turn-Based Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 43
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 25% $62k (exactly $62,369)
Top 5% $206k (exactly $206,412)
Developers, 2 yr 43
Released games 123
Announced 54
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 105% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Asynchronous Multiplayer
effort 5 / 10 · low · a backend with accounts and persistent turns
Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Asynchronous Multiplayer, Turn-Based Strategy; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics, PvP
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 3,739 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $62k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 7 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 54 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Asynchronous Multiplayer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Turn-BasedStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds10 devs · median $25k · 12 announced
  3. + Immersive SimFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  4. + Board GameFair30 devs · median $6.7k · 33 announced
  5. + WarFair14 devs · median $6.0k · 20 announced
  6. + Strategy RPGFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  7. + SpaceLong shot15 devs · median $299 · 18 announced
  8. + Tactical RPGPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  9. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds21 devs · median $56k · 48 announced
  10. + AutomationPoor odds12 devs · median $56k · 18 announced
  11. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $53k · 38 announced
  12. + NaturePoor odds10 devs · median $37k · 20 announced

All 76 pairs on the Asynchronous Multiplayer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer 40,000: Battlesector older $39.99 5,064 88% 152k $6.1M (exactly $6,075,281) Slitherine Ltd.
Turmoil older $12.99 13,154 92% 395k $5.1M (exactly $5,126,114) Gamious
Axis & Allies 1942 Online older $19.99 4,810 78% 144k $2.9M (exactly $2,884,557) Beamdog
Dominions 5 - Warriors of the Faith older $39.99 1,924 94% 58k $2.3M (exactly $2,308,223) Illwinter Game Design
Dominions 6 - Rise of the Pantokrator older $44.99 1,686 90% 51k $2.3M (exactly $2,275,594) Illwinter Game Design
Root older $14.99 5,049 90% 151k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,535) Dire Wolf
Solium Infernum older $39.99 1,571 88% 47k $1.9M (exactly $1,884,729) League of Geeks
Shadow Empire older $39.99 1,431 82% 43k $1.7M (exactly $1,716,771) VR Designs
Conquest of Elysium 5 older $29.99 1,872 90% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,684,238) Illwinter Game Design
Through the Ages older $15.99 2,188 90% 66k $1.0M (exactly $1,049,584) CGE Digital
Wretch: Divine Ascent $14.99 975 75% 29k $438k (exactly $438,458) Ogopogo
The Conquest of Go $14.99 581 94% 17k $261k (exactly $261,276) Wolfey Studios
Monster Battles $14.99 459 74% 14k $206k (exactly $206,412) Fourteen
Apokerlypse $9.99 612 81% 18k $183k (exactly $183,416) Breaker Games
Flashpoint Campaigns: Cold War $49.99 107 99% 3.2k $160k (exactly $160,468) On Target Simulations
Yield! Fall of Rome $19.99 219 69% 6.6k $131k (exactly $131,334) Billionworlds
NEODUEL: Backpack Monsters $11.99 357 79% 11k $128k (exactly $128,413) dicehit, Rogue Duck Interactive
Water Margin Scrolls $9.99 244 40% 7.3k $73k (exactly $73,127) QingHe Games
No Retreat! The Russian Front $29.99 80 76% 2.4k $72k (exactly $71,976) Cyril Jarnot, Avalon Digital
Screeps: Arena $19.99 105 82% 3.2k $63k (exactly $62,968) Screeps, LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.