Do I ship it?

GamesAsynchronous MultiplayerAsynchronous Multiplayer + Turn-Based

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Asynchronous Multiplayer Turn-Based game?

Asynchronous Multiplayer + Turn-Based

Only 13 developers shipped an Asynchronous Multiplayer Turn-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Backpack Battles, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced.

Verdict: strong odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $60k, ×95 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 7 in 10 cleared $29k. Revenue is up 170% on the market; 10 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×1.3 per shipper.

Deciding numbers: median 95.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 170% on the market, 10 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Asynchronous Multiplayer + Turn-Based
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Asynchronous Multiplayer + Turn-Based: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $30k (exactly $29,680)
Median $60k (exactly $59,810)
Top 25% $183k (exactly $183,416)
Top 5% $8.5M (exactly $8,514,170)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 58
Announced 10
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Asynchronous Multiplayer
effort 5 / 10 · low · a backend with accounts and persistent turns
Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Asynchronous Multiplayer, Turn-Based; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Battler, Inventory Management
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 21,336 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $30k, median $60k, 1 in 4 over $180k, 1 in 20 over $8.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $30k. 4 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 10 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Asynchronous Multiplayer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds10 devs · median $25k · 12 announced
  2. + Immersive SimFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  3. + Board GameFair30 devs · median $6.7k · 33 announced
  4. + WarFair14 devs · median $6.0k · 20 announced
  5. + Turn-Based StrategyFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  6. + Strategy RPGFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  7. + SpaceLong shot15 devs · median $299 · 18 announced
  8. + Tactical RPGPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  9. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds21 devs · median $56k · 48 announced
  10. + AutomationPoor odds12 devs · median $56k · 18 announced
  11. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $53k · 38 announced
  12. + NaturePoor odds10 devs · median $37k · 20 announced

All 76 pairs on the Asynchronous Multiplayer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Backpack Battles $14.99 18,933 91% 568k $8.5M (exactly $8,514,170) PlayWithFurcifer
Warhammer 40,000: Battlesector older $39.99 5,064 88% 152k $6.1M (exactly $6,075,281) Slitherine Ltd.
Dominions 5 - Warriors of the Faith older $39.99 1,924 94% 58k $2.3M (exactly $2,308,223) Illwinter Game Design
Despot's Game: Dystopian Battle Simulator older $19.99 2,878 83% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,725,937) Konfa Games
Shadow Empire older $39.99 1,431 82% 43k $1.7M (exactly $1,716,771) VR Designs
Through the Ages older $15.99 2,188 90% 66k $1.0M (exactly $1,049,584) CGE Digital
Frozen Synapse older $24.99 1,108 89% 33k $831k (exactly $830,668) Mode 7
Twilight Struggle older $9.99 2,568 86% 77k $770k (exactly $769,630) Playdek, Inc.
Field of Glory II older $29.99 705 87% 21k $634k (exactly $634,288) Byzantine Games
D&D Lords of Waterdeep older $9.99 1,543 93% 46k $462k (exactly $462,437) Playdek, Inc.
The Conquest of Go $14.99 581 94% 17k $261k (exactly $261,276) Wolfey Studios
Turnbound $14.99 446 78% 13k $201k (exactly $200,566) 1TK
Apokerlypse $9.99 612 81% 18k $183k (exactly $183,416) Breaker Games
Yield! Fall of Rome $19.99 219 69% 6.6k $131k (exactly $131,334) Billionworlds
Tiny Auto Knights $14.99 199 82% 6.0k $89k (exactly $89,490) Mumpitz Games
Valefor $14.99 133 66% 4.0k $60k (exactly $59,810) Valefor Ltd
Barrage $14.99 78 80% 2.3k $35k (exactly $35,077) Cranio Lab
Evolve Lab · EA $14.99 69 94% 2.1k $31k (exactly $31,029) SiRen Games
Some of You May Die $14.99 66 69% 2.0k $30k (exactly $29,680) Octavia Blue

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.