Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Asynchronous Multiplayer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Asynchronous Multiplayer Open World game?

Open World + Asynchronous Multiplayer

Only 14 developers shipped an Asynchronous Multiplayer Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, DEATH STRANDING 2: ON THE BEACH, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×2.0 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $32M, ×21633 the market median. Revenue is up 2720% on the market; 26 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 2720% on the market, 26 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Asynchronous Multiplayer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $479 → $11k → $2.9k → $25k → $623k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Asynchronous Multiplayer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 25% $65k (exactly $65,224)
Top 5% $32M (exactly $32,406,770)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 41
Announced 26
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2720% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 34%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Asynchronous Multiplayer
effort 5 / 10 · low · a backend with accounts and persistent turns

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Asynchronous Multiplayer
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 23,133 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $65k, 1 in 20 over $32M.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

DEATH STRANDING 2: ON THE BEACH 2026 · $32M Rise of the Ronin 2025 · $9.8M TRYP FPV: Drone Racer Simulator 2022 · EA · $1.6M Euro Fishing 2015 · $673k Demon Tides 2026 · $623k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DEATH STRANDING 2: ON THE BEACH $69.99 15,434 94% 463k $32M (exactly $32,406,770) KOJIMA PRODUCTIONS, Nixxes Software
Rise of the Ronin $49.99 6,503 64% 195k $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
TRYP FPV: Drone Racer Simulator · EA older $16.99 3,155 85% 95k $1.6M (exactly $1,608,103) UNDEAD BATTERY
Euro Fishing older $14.99 1,496 64% 45k $673k (exactly $672,751) Dovetail Games
Demon Tides $24.99 831 96% 25k $623k (exactly $623,001) Fabraz
GearBlocks · EA older $14.99 759 90% 23k $341k (exactly $341,322) SmashHammer Games
RENNSPORT $24.99 87 50% 2.6k $65k (exactly $65,224) Teyon, Competition Company
Stash: A Card Looter $9.99 186 79% 5.6k $56k (exactly $55,744) WheeGaming
World Wide Hack · EA older $16.99 69 60% 2.1k $35k (exactly $35,169) Lotus Innovations
GUILT: The Deathless · EA older $16.99 65 80% 2.0k $33k (exactly $33,130) Outer Brain Studios
NebuLeet $15.99 53 90% 1.6k $25k (exactly $25,424) quasilyte
Carbox $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Hues Games
在异世界打怪的修仙者 $3.99 24 79% 720 $2.9k (exactly $2,873) xiaoyuefei
FootballLife $17.99 3 33% 90 $1.6k (exactly $1,619) 小伍
Baratrum $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) Clyde Smets

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.