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Should I ship an AI Wargame?
Wargame + Artificial Intelligence
Of 30 developers who shipped an AI Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $710k, ×1146 the market median. Revenue is up 775% on the market; 50 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $179 (exactly $179) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.8k (exactly $1,798) |
| Top 25% | $54k (exactly $53,514) |
| Top 5% | $720k (exactly $719,760) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 30 |
| Released games | 113 |
| Announced | 50 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 775% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Wargame
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Artificial Intelligence
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Wargame; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Combat, Simulation
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 58% positive over 28,964 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Wargame with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Inventory ManagementFair
- + Local MultiplayerFair
- + NavalFair
- + TabletopFair
- + LogicFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Real-TimePoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + StealthPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
Comparable games
Broken Arrow 2025 · $39M 
Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War 2018 · $9.8M 
Starship Troopers: Terran Command 2022 · $8.3M 
RUNNING WITH RIFLES 2015 · $6.6M 
Nuclear Option 2023 · EA · $6.2M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Broken Arrow | $49.99 | 25,924 55% | 778k | $39M (exactly $38,878,223) | Steel Balalaika | |
| | Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War | older | $39.99 | 8,148 82% | 244k | $9.8M (exactly $9,775,156) | Proxy Studios |
| | Starship Troopers: Terran Command | older | $29.99 | 9,214 87% | 276k | $8.3M (exactly $8,289,836) | The Artistocrats |
| | RUNNING WITH RIFLES | older | $14.99 | 14,676 87% | 440k | $6.6M (exactly $6,599,797) | Osumia Games |
| | Nuclear Option | · EA older | $19.99 | 10,275 95% | 308k | $6.2M (exactly $6,161,917) | Shockfront Studios |
 | Ultimate Epic Battle Simulator 2 | older | $19.99 | 7,206 84% | 216k | $4.3M (exactly $4,321,438) | Brilliant Game Studios |
 | Panzer Corps 2 | older | $39.99 | 3,512 84% | 105k | $4.2M (exactly $4,213,346) | Flashback Games |
 | Terminator: Dark Fate - Defiance | older | $39.99 | 3,395 82% | 102k | $4.1M (exactly $4,072,982) | Slitherine Ltd. |
 | Ages of Conflict: World War Simulator | · EA older | $6.99 | 8,904 96% | 267k | $1.9M (exactly $1,867,169) | JoySpark Games |
 | Power & Revolution 2020 Edition | older | $49.99 | 769 63% | 23k | $1.2M (exactly $1,153,269) | Eversim |
 | Ukrainian Fight Drone Simulator (UFDS) - FPV drone simulator | $29.99 | 800 80% | 24k | $720k (exactly $719,760) | SIMTECH SOLUTIONS | |
 | Dagger Directive | $19.99 | 802 83% | 24k | $481k (exactly $480,959) | Arcane Alpacas LLC | |
 | The Conquest of Go | $14.99 | 581 94% | 17k | $261k (exactly $261,276) | Wolfey Studios | |
 | Industrial Annihilation | · EA | $29.99 | 206 27% | 6.2k | $185k (exactly $185,338) | Galactic Annihilation |
 | SeaCret 1 | · EA | $39.99 | 99 61% | 3.0k | $119k (exactly $118,770) | Dalas |
 | Mr. President | $19.99 | 162 75% | 4.9k | $97k (exactly $97,151) | Exia Labs | |
 | Machinefall | $14.99 | 119 82% | 3.6k | $54k (exactly $53,514) | by Jan Zizka | |
 | SkyInFlames | · EA | $6.99 | 223 95% | 6.7k | $47k (exactly $46,763) | VasyliyBritva |
 | City States: Medieval | $19.99 | 48 68% | 1.4k | $29k (exactly $28,786) | Reverie World Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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