Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Open World game?

Open World + Artificial Intelligence

Of 49 developers who shipped an AI Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 116 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $18k, ×12 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $19M, ×13250 the market median. Revenue is up 2595% on the market; 116 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 2595% on the market, 116 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 49
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $30k → $7.1k → $1.9k → $18k → $600 → $30k → $41k (still earning) → $4.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 49
Bottom 30% $718 (exactly $718)
Median $18k (exactly $17,982)
Top 25% $119k (exactly $118,770)
Top 5% $20M (exactly $19,849,036)
Developers, 2 yr 49
Released games 164
Announced 116
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2595% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Exploration, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 159,012 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $18k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $19M.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 8 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 116 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Crimson Desert Enhanced 2026 · $242M Dragon's Dogma 2 2024 · $92M Assetto Corsa 2014 · $82M Jurassic World Evolution 3 2025 · $20M Assetto Corsa EVO 2025 · EA · $20M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crimson Desert Enhanced $69.99 115,056 83% 3.5M $242M (exactly $241,583,083) Pearl Abyss
Dragon's Dogma 2 older $39.99 76,627 62% 2.3M $92M (exactly $91,929,412) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Assetto Corsa older $19.99 136,067 92% 4.1M $82M (exactly $81,599,380) Kunos Simulazioni
Jurassic World Evolution 3 $59.99 11,387 93% 342k $20M (exactly $20,493,184) Frontier Developments
Assetto Corsa EVO · EA $39.99 16,545 60% 496k $20M (exactly $19,849,036) KUNOS Simulazioni
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Remastered $49.99 6,860 84% 206k $10M (exactly $10,287,942) Guerrilla Games, Nixxes Software
RUNNING WITH RIFLES older $14.99 14,676 87% 440k $6.6M (exactly $6,599,797) Osumia Games
Prehistoric Kingdom · EA older $29.99 5,640 90% 169k $5.1M (exactly $5,074,308) Blue Meridian
SimplePlanes older $12.99 9,811 93% 294k $3.8M (exactly $3,823,347) Jundroo, LLC
SpaceBourne 2 $19.99 4,951 75% 149k $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115) Burak Dabak
Global Rescue · EA $24.99 1,864 86% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,397,441) PeDePe GbR
City Transport Simulator 2026 - Bus & Tram $39.99 526 73% 16k $631k (exactly $631,042) ViewApp
SILENT BREATH $9.99 1,124 67% 34k $337k (exactly $336,863) EXODIAC STUDIOS
Settlements Rising $18.99 416 80% 12k $237k (exactly $236,995) The Catalyst Crew
Vaudeville $19.99 283 48% 8.5k $170k (exactly $169,715) Bumblebee Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.