Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Arena Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arena Shooter Open World game?

Open World + Arena Shooter

Of 28 developers who shipped an Arena Shooter Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $60 in the last 2 years and $150 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build. 10 developers shipped in the last year and 31 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 31 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Arena Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $3.2k → $3.7k → $3.8k → $89 → $60 → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Arena Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $60 (exactly $60)
Top 25% $1.2k (exactly $1,158)
Top 5% $30k (exactly $30,270)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 86
Announced 31
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Arena Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Arena Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, FPS, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, Stylized
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 7,748 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $60, 1 in 4 over $1.1k, 1 in 20 over $30k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Serious Sam 4 2020 · $19M Echo Point Nova 2024 · $5.6M I Am Your Beast 2024 · $3.2M Heliborne Collection 2017 · $2.9M Gas Guzzlers Extreme 2013 · $2.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Serious Sam 4 older $39.99 15,612 83% 468k $19M (exactly $18,729,716) Croteam
Echo Point Nova $24.99 7,521 96% 226k $5.6M (exactly $5,638,494) Greylock Studio
I Am Your Beast older $19.99 5,275 97% 158k $3.2M (exactly $3,163,417) Strange Scaffold
Heliborne Collection older $29.99 3,255 76% 98k $2.9M (exactly $2,928,524) Klabater
Gas Guzzlers Extreme older $24.99 3,081 86% 92k $2.3M (exactly $2,309,826) Gamepires
Black Ice · EA older $19.99 515 95% 15k $309k (exactly $308,846) Nonadecimal Creative, Super Duper Garre… (Nonadecimal Creative, Super Duper Garrett Cooper)
Shark Attack Deathmatch 2 older $4.99 1,415 74% 42k $212k (exactly $211,826) Lighthouse Games Studio
OPG: Clan Wars $9.99 101 74% 3.0k $30k (exactly $30,270) Anarchy Games, Street's Game
Hitler Hates Anime older $1.99 463 93% 14k $28k (exactly $27,641) PaulArt
NeonXSZ older $9.99 92 75% 2.8k $28k (exactly $27,572) Intravenous Software
Vienkiemis · EA $12.99 44 100% 1.3k $17k (exactly $17,147) dssob, SMEIVIS
Escape From Infection Zone $39.99 6 100% 180 $7.2k (exactly $7,198) Funbang
Iron Trails: Outlaw Pursuit · EA $17.99 7 14% 210 $3.8k (exactly $3,778) Gloac Games, Gloac
GRING×GRIND $4.99 24 66% 720 $3.6k (exactly $3,593) Lola Fisher
Hentai USSR $0.99 39 87% 1.2k $1.2k (exactly $1,158) Who We Are Games
Forbidden zone $4.99 3 0% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Karuna
Blank Canvas · EA $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Blank Canvas Games
Doom Drive $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Berk Kalfa

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.