Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Action Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Action Roguelike Open World game?

Open World + Action Roguelike

Of 96 developers who shipped an Action Roguelike Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 206 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. 206 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper, while revenue is up 65% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 206 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Action Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 96
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $360 → $1.2k → $418 → $1.3k → $958 → $959 → $1.9k (still earning) → $210 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Action Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 96
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,389)
Top 5% $350k (exactly $349,983)
Developers, 2 yr 96
Released games 288
Announced 206
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, Action Roguelike; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 40,724 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $960, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $340k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 54 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 206 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Noita 2020 · $49M 嗜血印 Bloody Spell 2022 · $26M MISERY 2025 · $7.8M Haste 2025 · $7.6M Cultivation Tales 2024 · $7.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Noita older $19.99 81,149 95% 2.4M $49M (exactly $48,665,055) Nolla Games
嗜血印 Bloody Spell older $24.99 34,184 89% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,627,745) 艺龙游戏
MISERY $12.99 20,015 85% 600k $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846) Platypus Entertainment
Haste $19.99 12,690 92% 381k $7.6M (exactly $7,610,193) Landfall
Cultivation Tales older $19.99 12,560 38% 377k $7.5M (exactly $7,532,232) Ac Games
Heat Signature older $14.99 6,849 94% 205k $3.1M (exactly $3,079,995) Suspicious Developments
Medal of Honor™: Above and Beyond older $39.99 2,466 65% 74k $3.0M (exactly $2,958,460) Respawn Entertainment
Pixel Piracy older $14.99 5,713 65% 171k $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) Vitali Kirpu
Atomicrops older $14.99 5,134 93% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,308,760) Bird Bath Games
VOIN · EA $19.99 3,319 94% 100k $2.0M (exactly $1,990,404) Nikita Sozidar
Killer Bean · EA $14.99 2,272 73% 68k $1.0M (exactly $1,021,718) Killer Bean Studios LLC
Descenders Next · EA $29.99 389 79% 12k $350k (exactly $349,983) RageSquid
Cursemark · EA $14.99 583 86% 17k $262k (exactly $262,175) CLYDE games
DAVY x JONES · EA $17.99 389 82% 12k $210k (exactly $209,943) PARASIGHT
Warlords Battleground: Extraction $11.99 525 84% 16k $189k (exactly $188,842) 绝汪
SWAPMEAT $16.49 304 86% 9.1k $150k (exactly $150,389) One More Game
Tankenstein · EA $17.99 238 89% 7.1k $128k (exactly $128,449) Landship Games LTD

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.