Do I ship it?

GamesOpen WorldOpen World + 2D Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 2D Platformer Open World game?

Open World + 2D Platformer

Of 89 developers who shipped a 2D Platformer Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 250 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $650, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90. 250 games are announced against 53 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper, while revenue is flat on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 250 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + 2D Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 89
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $1.2k → $356 → $824 → $1.8k → $300 → $2.7k (still earning) → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + 2D Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 89
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $648 (exactly $648)
Top 25% $4.2k (exactly $4,194)
Top 5% $79k (exactly $79,188)
Developers, 2 yr 89
Released games 300
Announced 250
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
2D Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, 2D Platformer; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Exploration
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 2,441 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $650, 1 in 4 over $4.1k, 1 in 20 over $79k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 250 games are announced against 53 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Noita older $19.99 81,149 95% 2.4M $49M (exactly $48,665,055) Nolla Games
Rain World older $24.99 46,871 94% 1.4M $35M (exactly $35,139,189) Videocult
觅长生 older $14.99 27,072 93% 812k $12M (exactly $12,174,278) Chalcedony Network
Afterimage older $24.99 6,929 79% 208k $5.2M (exactly $5,194,671) Aurogon Shanghai
Thank Goodness You're Here! older $19.99 7,742 96% 232k $4.6M (exactly $4,642,877) Coal Supper
FlipWitch - Forbidden Sex Hex older $14.99 5,549 94% 166k $2.5M (exactly $2,495,385) MomoGames, Critical Bliss
Haiku, the Robot older $19.99 2,576 90% 77k $1.5M (exactly $1,544,827) Mister Morris Games
Frontier Hunter: Erza’s Wheel of Fortune older $24.99 1,914 82% 57k $1.4M (exactly $1,434,926) IceSitruuna
Islets older $19.99 1,831 95% 55k $1.1M (exactly $1,098,051) Kyle Thompson
VVVVVV older $4.99 6,657 96% 200k $997k (exactly $996,553) Terry Cavanagh
Sea Fantasy $14.99 585 86% 18k $263k (exactly $263,074) METASLA
Soul's Chronicle: Immortal Slayer $14.99 441 77% 13k $198k (exactly $198,318) 正向星光工作室
Bat to the Heavens $14.99 407 95% 12k $183k (exactly $183,028) ceroro
Infinitevania $14.99 247 91% 7.4k $111k (exactly $111,076) JHT Games
Toziuha Night: Order of the Alchemists $18.99 139 79% 4.2k $79k (exactly $79,188) Danny Garay
巴哈姆特1-REMAKE(BAHAMUT1-REMAKE) $9.99 170 95% 5.1k $51k (exactly $50,949) 王韋
Immortal Farmer: System’s Mandate · EA $4.99 297 68% 8.9k $44k (exactly $44,461) oyogame
Aggelos 2 $19.99 61 73% 1.8k $37k (exactly $36,582) WONDERBOY BOBI
Yuma Nest · EA $19.99 57 89% 1.7k $34k (exactly $34,183) Piokou
The End of Gameplay $19.99 37 97% 1.1k $22k (exactly $22,189) droqen

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.