Do I ship it?

GamesOpen WorldOpen World + 2D Fighter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 2D Fighter Open World game?

Open World + 2D Fighter

Only 12 developers shipped a 2D Fighter Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Path of Kung Fu, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×5.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60. 33 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.5 per shipper, while revenue is up 350% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 350% on the market, 33 announced, ×5.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + 2D Fighter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $11k → $270 → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + 2D Fighter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $4.8k (exactly $4,795)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,194,536)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 47
Announced 33
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 350% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
2D Fighter
effort 5 / 10 · low · frame-precise animation and rollback netcode

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, 2D Fighter
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 72% positive over 5,008 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $360, 1 in 4 over $4.7k, 1 in 20 over $2.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Street Fighter™ 6 older $39.99 49,952 81% 1.5M $60M (exactly $59,927,414) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Marvel vs. Capcom: Infinite older $39.99 2,445 67% 73k $2.9M (exactly $2,933,266) Capcom
Path of Kung Fu $14.99 4,880 72% 146k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,536) 游鲤化龙工作室
Age of Barbarians Chronicles $18.99 101 76% 3.0k $58k (exactly $57,540) Crian Soft
Yatagarasu Enter the Eastward older $14.99 31 58% 930 $14k (exactly $13,941) Yatagarasu Dev Team
Tails of Glimmervale older $8.99 41 90% 1.2k $11k (exactly $11,058) Corebreak Interactive
Five Gods of Kung Fu older $19.99 9 100% 270 $5.4k (exactly $5,397) Gregor Bestelmeyer
Just Keep Digging $9.99 16 87% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) Relt
Awaken older $9.99 14 42% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Beijing Xianfan Culture Co., Ltd.
Grizzland older $4.99 28 82% 840 $4.2k (exactly $4,192) Kiepska Spółka
Hybrid Beasts $7.99 4 50% 120 $959 (exactly $959) Beastbits
Stellar Odyssey · EA $14.99 2 100% 60 $899 (exactly $899) Warp Studios Pty Ltd
Oldish Stuff · EA $5.99 2 100% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Mergy Games
Rockthesea · EA $8.99 1 100% 30 $270 (exactly $270) Insexsity_team
SuperCowBoy $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) liu ningmeng
Cat With Gun $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Anton Kastler
The Mission Exorcist $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Player Transform

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.