Should I ship an Underwater game?
Underwater
Of 330 developers who shipped an Underwater game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 503 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $620k, ×997 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 503 games are announced against 193 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $297 (exactly $297) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.0k (exactly $1,048) |
| Top 25% | $7.6k (exactly $7,552) |
| Top 5% | $626k (exactly $626,087) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 330 |
| Released games | 846 |
| Announced | 503 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Underwater
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 69% positive over 383,344 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 167 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 503 games are announced against 193 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
All pairs with Underwater
- Score Attack + Underwater Poor odds $599
- Combat + Underwater Poor odds $598
- Puzzle Platformer + Underwater Poor odds $597
- RPG + Underwater Poor odds $300
- PvP + Underwater Dead $27k
- FPS + Underwater Dead $2.8k
- Sports + Underwater Dead $1.8k
- Investigation + Underwater Dead $1.8k
- Interactive Fiction + Underwater Dead $538
- Logic + Underwater Dead $479
- PvE + Underwater Dead $359
- Arcade + Underwater Dead $299
- Shoot 'Em Up + Underwater Dead $299
- 2D Platformer + Underwater Dead $150
Comparable games
Subnautica 2018 · $307M 
Monster Hunter Wilds 2025 · $241M 
Raft 2022 · $194M 
Subnautica 2 2026 · EA · $105M 
Subnautica: Below Zero 2021 · $89M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Subnautica | older | $29.99 | 341,390 97% | 10M | $307M (exactly $307,148,583) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
| | Monster Hunter Wilds | $39.99 | 200,984 52% | 6.0M | $241M (exactly $241,120,505) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. | |
| | Raft | older | $19.99 | 323,481 93% | 9.7M | $194M (exactly $193,991,556) | Redbeet Interactive |
| | Subnautica 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 116,852 91% | 3.5M | $105M (exactly $105,131,744) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
| | Subnautica: Below Zero | older | $29.99 | 99,384 90% | 3.0M | $89M (exactly $89,415,785) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
 | DAVE THE DIVER | older | $19.99 | 142,662 96% | 4.3M | $86M (exactly $85,554,401) | MINTROCKET |
 | Barotrauma | older | $34.99 | 61,905 94% | 1.9M | $65M (exactly $64,981,678) | FakeFish, Undertow Games |
 | Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced | $59.99 | 26,652 81% | 800k | $48M (exactly $47,965,604) | Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania) | |
 | SOMA | older | $29.99 | 46,772 95% | 1.4M | $42M (exactly $42,080,768) | Frictional Games |
 | BioShock™ Remastered | older | $19.99 | 52,500 83% | 1.6M | $31M (exactly $31,484,250) | 2K Boston, 2K Australia, Blind Squirrel… (2K Boston, 2K Australia, Blind Squirrel, Feral Interactive (Mac)) |
 | The Last Caretaker | · EA | $34.99 | 13,178 86% | 395k | $14M (exactly $13,832,947) | Channel37 Ltd |
 | Starsand Island | $39.99 | 5,898 76% | 177k | $7.1M (exactly $7,075,831) | Seed Sparkle Lab | |
 | Cast n Chill | $14.99 | 8,383 94% | 251k | $3.8M (exactly $3,769,835) | Wombat Brawler | |
 | Abyssus | $24.99 | 5,014 84% | 150k | $3.8M (exactly $3,758,996) | DoubleMoose Games | |
 | Voyagers of Nera | · EA | $29.99 | 2,022 83% | 61k | $1.8M (exactly $1,819,193) | Treehouse Games |
 | IfSunSets | · EA | $19.99 | 2,284 74% | 69k | $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715) | POLYMORPH |
 | Ultimate Fishing® Simulator 2 | $19.99 | 2,077 66% | 62k | $1.2M (exactly $1,245,577) | Silent Bear Studio, SHINING GAMES |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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