Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + Underwater

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underwater PvP game?

PvP + Underwater

Only 8 developers shipped an Underwater PvP game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Away From Life, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×6.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 8 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $27k against a market of $1.5k. 25 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 18.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 125% on the market, 25 announced, ×6.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Underwater
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $958 → $150 → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Underwater: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,151)
Median $27k (exactly $26,970)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $33,452)
Top 5% $83k (exactly $83,006)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 36
Announced 25
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 125% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Underwater
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP
Price point
$11.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 26,220 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $27k, 1 in 4 over $33k, 1 in 20 over $83k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Depth older $19.99 23,590 89% 708k $14M (exactly $14,146,923) Ammobox Studios
Aquanox Deep Descent older $29.99 463 48% 14k $417k (exactly $416,561) Digital Arrow
Shark Attack Deathmatch 2 older $4.99 1,415 74% 42k $212k (exactly $211,826) Lighthouse Games Studio
Away From Life · EA $12.99 213 66% 6.4k $83k (exactly $83,006) Cursor Games
Fishing Sim World: Bass Pro Shops Edition older $39.99 48 79% 1.4k $58k (exactly $57,586) Dovetail Games
Fight Crab 2 · EA older $14.99 128 92% 3.8k $58k (exactly $57,562) Calappa Games
SHRIMP GAME: OVERKRILL $11.99 93 89% 2.8k $33k (exactly $33,452) GasGod Games, GLUE MAN
Evolve Lab · EA $14.99 69 94% 2.1k $31k (exactly $31,029) SiRen Games
Deep Blue: Devour and Evolve $8.99 100 83% 3.0k $27k (exactly $26,970) ZHOUZEMING
WhaleGameOnline · EA older $2.99 101 92% 3.0k $9.1k (exactly $9,060) NekokujiraLab
Slug Wars $4.99 22 100% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) Hovi Production
Reel it! World Fishing $12.79 3 66% 90 $1.2k (exactly $1,151) SAT-BOX
Bloop $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Ducktastic
Iron & Ivory $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) OutReach Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.