Do I ship it?

Games › Combat › Combat + Underwater

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underwater Combat game?

Combat + Underwater

Of 38 developers who shipped an Underwater Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×679 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 52 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 52 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Underwater
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $959 → $0 → $3.0k → $1.7k → $300 (still earning) → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Underwater: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $598 (exactly $598)
Top 25% $4.3k (exactly $4,341)
Top 5% $427k (exactly $426,529)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 76
Announced 52
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Underwater
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Fishing
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 27,324 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $600, 1 in 4 over $4.3k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. All of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 52 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced 2026 · $48M Modern Naval Warfare 2026 · EA · $427k Shark Attack Deathmatch 2 2019 · $212k Crash Dive 2 2021 · $84k Fight Crab 2 2024 · EA · $58k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced $59.99 26,652 81% 800k $48M (exactly $47,965,604) Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania)
Modern Naval Warfare · EA $59.99 237 58% 7.1k $427k (exactly $426,529) Wave Ops
Shark Attack Deathmatch 2 older $4.99 1,415 74% 42k $212k (exactly $211,826) Lighthouse Games Studio
Crash Dive 2 older $11.99 233 95% 7.0k $84k (exactly $83,810) Panic Ensues Software
Fight Crab 2 · EA older $14.99 128 92% 3.8k $58k (exactly $57,562) Calappa Games
Port of Jumanah $11.99 145 100% 4.4k $52k (exactly $52,156) Red Dunes Games, Agate
UBOAT: The Silent Wolf VR older $19.99 69 59% 2.1k $41k (exactly $41,379) Titan GameZ
Evolve Lab · EA $14.99 69 94% 2.1k $31k (exactly $31,029) SiRen Games
Dive The Depths $9.99 87 72% 2.6k $26k (exactly $26,074) Frizuo, Starpixel Studios
Tidewrack $9.99 22 68% 660 $6.6k (exactly $6,593) OverLKD Studio
Hook Line and Sniper $7.99 23 100% 690 $5.5k (exactly $5,513) ItellaItella, Justin1L8
Goldfish $14.99 10 80% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Gabry Corti
Critical Fishing $2.99 50 96% 1.5k $4.5k (exactly $4,485) lazygun
Fishing Mega-Game $4.99 29 89% 870 $4.3k (exactly $4,341) Peep

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.