Do I ship it?

Games › Arcade › Arcade + Underwater

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underwater Arcade game?

Arcade + Underwater

Of 59 developers who shipped an Underwater Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 63 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 40 developers shipped in the last year and 63 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 63 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Underwater
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 59
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $776 → $2.3k → $958 → $239 → $891 → $299 → $959 (still earning) → $210 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Underwater: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 59
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Top 5% $110k (exactly $110,345)
Developers, 2 yr 59
Released games 149
Announced 63
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Underwater
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Arcade; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Simulation, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 3,309 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.4k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. Nearly all of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 63 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Cat Goes Fishing 2015 · $3.2M Scale the Depths 2026 · $564k Feeding Frenzy 2 Deluxe 2006 · $372k Octogeddon 2018 · $346k Darius Cozmic Collection Arcade 2021 · $204k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cat Goes Fishing older $6.99 15,431 94% 463k $3.2M (exactly $3,235,881) Cat5Games
Scale the Depths $9.99 1,881 88% 56k $564k (exactly $563,736) Glass Gecko Games
Feeding Frenzy 2 Deluxe older $4.99 2,486 97% 75k $372k (exactly $372,154) PopCap Games, Inc.
Octogeddon older $8.88 1,298 92% 39k $346k (exactly $345,787) All Yes Good
Darius Cozmic Collection Arcade older $44.99 151 94% 4.5k $204k (exactly $203,805) TAITO CORP., M2 Co.,LTD
Captain Whiskers: Incremental Seas $5.99 886 85% 27k $159k (exactly $159,214) Happy Universe Studios
G-Darius HD older $29.99 158 94% 4.7k $142k (exactly $142,153) TAITO CORP., M2 Co., Ltd.
Real VR Fishing $19.99 184 73% 5.5k $110k (exactly $110,345) Devs United Games, Inc
Creatura older $14.99 214 67% 6.4k $96k (exactly $96,236) Koksny.com
Death In Abyss $19.99 146 82% 4.4k $88k (exactly $87,556) Agelvik
Kraken Cleaning $5.99 92 86% 2.8k $17k (exactly $16,532) Luka Works
Hook Line and Sniper $7.99 23 100% 690 $5.5k (exactly $5,513) ItellaItella, Justin1L8
Sonar Scout $5.99 26 100% 780 $4.7k (exactly $4,672) Dan Schumacher, Hjalte Tagmose, Neil Do… (Dan Schumacher, Hjalte Tagmose, Neil Doppelmayr, Christoph Englert, Pontus Liljekvist, Hugo Roque)
Fishing Mega-Game $4.99 29 89% 870 $4.3k (exactly $4,341) Peep
The Hookmarine $5.99 24 100% 720 $4.3k (exactly $4,313) Elendow
Deep Sea Idle: Infinity Abyss $4.99 18 83% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) HIGHKICKSTUDIO

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.