Do I ship it?

GamesLogicLogic + Underwater

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underwater Logic game?

Logic + Underwater

Only 10 developers shipped an Underwater Logic game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Power Sink, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 5 developers shipped in the last year and 13 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 13 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Logic + Underwater
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.0k → $179 → $479
Outcomes for Logic + Underwater: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 5% $12k (exactly $11,692)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 30
Announced 13
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply as many developers as the period before.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids
Underwater
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Logic
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 6 games average 86% positive over 50 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $480, 1 in 4 over $1.7k, 1 in 20 over $11k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Logic with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LovecraftianFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  2. + City BuilderFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + NoirFair42 devs · median $2.7k · 59 announced
  4. + HackingFair60 devs · median $2.5k · 67 announced
  5. + VampiresFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  6. + DragonsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 8 announced
  7. + Escape RoomFair54 devs · median $2.1k · 44 announced
  8. + Bullet TimeFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  9. + Inventory ManagementFair70 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  10. + TransportationFair29 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  11. + Automobile SimFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + CookingFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced

All 200 pairs on the Logic page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Microcosmum: survival of cells older $7.99 1,117 80% 34k $268k (exactly $267,745) Satur Entertainment
Lost Artifacts: Golden Island older $14.99 37 72% 1.1k $17k (exactly $16,639) Creobit, GameOn Production
Underwater battles older $39.99 12 75% 360 $14k (exactly $14,396) Stas Paty9mkin
Tiny Bubbles older $9.99 44 90% 1.3k $13k (exactly $13,187) Pine Street Codeworks LLC
Power Sink $14.99 26 96% 780 $12k (exactly $11,692) Winterwire Games
Neko Beach older $0.99 265 78% 8.0k $7.9k (exactly $7,870) Yummy Yummy Studio
Liquidum older $4.99 34 91% 1.0k $5.1k (exactly $5,090) Marvellous Soft
Animals Memory: Underwater Kingdom older $3.99 36 77% 1.1k $4.3k (exactly $4,309) Laush Dmitriy Sergeevich
SEARCH ALL - SEASHELLS older $2.99 48 89% 1.4k $4.3k (exactly $4,306) Laush Dmitriy Sergeevich
Water Ball older $9.99 13 69% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Stas Paty9mkin
New Yankee: Pirate Trap $6.99 11 81% 330 $2.3k (exactly $2,307) Alawar Casual
Meduziak $9.99 6 83% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Fieldfare Studios
Dive and Dine Simulator · EA $9.99 2 0% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Alessandro Muscente
Killer Depths $7.99 2 100% 60 $479 (exactly $479) Stardust Smithy
It was beautiful $1.99 3 66% 90 $179 (exactly $179) Tudor Croitoru
Slightly Overweight Superhero and the seven levels of death $8.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Nathan Laird
Bubble Ball! $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Isaac Madsen
Pinchi-Stingi $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Opilio
bubble $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) prefowl

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.