Do I ship it?

GamesShoot 'Em UpShoot 'Em Up + Underwater

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underwater Shoot 'Em Up?

Shoot 'Em Up + Underwater

Only 11 developers shipped an Underwater Shoot 'Em Up in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Critical Fishing, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 8 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 6 developers shipped in the last year and 8 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 1155% on the market, 8 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shoot 'Em Up + Underwater
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $0 → $150 → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shoot 'Em Up + Underwater: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Top 5% $4.5k (exactly $4,485)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 38
Announced 8
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1155% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Underwater
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Shoot 'Em Up
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 7 games average 93% positive over 88 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.4k, 1 in 20 over $4.4k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 8 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shoot 'Em Up with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FaithFair13 devs · median $17k · 13 announced
  2. + RomanceFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  4. + Quick-Time EventsFair8 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair39 devs · median $628 · 36 announced
  6. + IdlerFair36 devs · median $628 · 14 announced
  7. + Tower DefenseFair70 devs · median $599 · 54 announced
  8. + Resource ManagementFair26 devs · median $599 · 34 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair749 devs · median $419 · 783 announced
  10. + SwordplayLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  11. + MusicPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 12 announced
  12. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $8.1k · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Shoot 'Em Up page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Death in the Water 2 older $14.99 1,734 83% 52k $780k (exactly $779,780) Lighthouse Games Studio
Octogeddon older $8.88 1,298 92% 39k $346k (exactly $345,787) All Yes Good
Shark Attack Deathmatch 2 older $4.99 1,415 74% 42k $212k (exactly $211,826) Lighthouse Games Studio
Darius Cozmic Collection Arcade older $44.99 151 94% 4.5k $204k (exactly $203,805) TAITO CORP., M2 Co.,LTD
G-Darius HD older $29.99 158 94% 4.7k $142k (exactly $142,153) TAITO CORP., M2 Co., Ltd.
NEO AQUARIUM - The King of Crustaceans - older $8.99 252 80% 7.6k $68k (exactly $67,964) Calappa Games
Aqua Kitty - Milk Mine Defender older $6.99 294 86% 8.8k $62k (exactly $61,652) TIKIPOD, Electric Cafe
Earth Atlantis older $14.99 48 58% 1.4k $22k (exactly $21,586) Pixel Perfex
Insiders older $13.99 40 80% 1.2k $17k (exactly $16,788) ANG People s.r.o.
Tragedy of Prince Rupert older $3.99 59 89% 1.8k $7.1k (exactly $7,062) Spytihněv
Critical Fishing $2.99 50 96% 1.5k $4.5k (exactly $4,485) lazygun
Super Chaos $5.99 13 92% 390 $2.3k (exactly $2,336) Anodaxia
Squidly's Revenge $4.99 10 100% 300 $1.5k (exactly $1,497) Howling Wolf Games
SeaQuestDungeon $7.99 5 80% 150 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) AlchemistGame
Bobble and the Tri-Crystal $4.99 7 100% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) HenryNova
Star Witch $4.99 2 0% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Frozen Dungeon
The Swarm 2 $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Solsgames
Gravitaws $12.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Coleowing
Slightly Overweight Superhero and the seven levels of death $8.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Nathan Laird
Mythos Mission: Sunken Kingdom $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) OLIVANGO

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.