Do I ship it?

GamesInvestigationInvestigation + Underwater

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underwater Investigation game?

Investigation + Underwater

Only 9 developers shipped an Underwater Investigation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Dreamcore, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.8k against a market of $630. 16 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 445% on the market, 16 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Investigation + Underwater
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.1k → $4.7k → $479
Outcomes for Investigation + Underwater: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Top 25% $5.5k (exactly $5,456)
Top 5% $1.0M (exactly $1,014,096)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 30
Announced 16
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 445% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Underwater
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Investigation
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 2,811 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $5.4k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Investigation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Escape RoomFair61 devs · median $2.1k · 50 announced
  2. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $898 · 16 announced
  3. + TriviaLong shot8 devs · median $215 · 9 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $39k · 70 announced
  5. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 27 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds64 devs · median $9.0k · 121 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds62 devs · median $9.0k · 101 announced
  8. + GothicPoor odds26 devs · median $8.1k · 54 announced
  9. + LovecraftianPoor odds56 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds37 devs · median $6.6k · 50 announced
  11. + Card GamePoor odds14 devs · median $6.6k · 34 announced
  12. + SciencePoor odds21 devs · median $5.9k · 36 announced

All 134 pairs on the Investigation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dreamcore $17.99 1,879 89% 56k $1.0M (exactly $1,014,096) Montraluz
Dreamcore: Rabbit Hole $5.99 396 72% 12k $71k (exactly $71,161) Ankoku
subROV : Underwater Discoveries · EA older $19.99 63 90% 1.9k $38k (exactly $37,781) sqr3lab
Debris older $9.99 97 60% 2.9k $29k (exactly $29,071) Moonray Studios
The Trench older $3.99 160 85% 4.8k $19k (exactly $19,152) Omar Chapa Hernandez, Omar Chapa Moyers
The Shore VR older $11.99 50 34% 1.5k $18k (exactly $17,985) Ares Dragonis
Deep Beyond older $8.99 62 87% 1.9k $17k (exactly $16,721) Avix Games
Stardiver older $11.99 33 51% 990 $12k (exactly $11,870) Green Planet Games
Pact of Joy older $6.99 37 91% 1.1k $7.8k (exactly $7,759) Just Sauce Studio
You Can Save Everyone older $5.99 34 88% 1.0k $6.1k (exactly $6,110) Caleb Draper
LOGBOOK: Beneath the Storm $13.99 13 38% 390 $5.5k (exactly $5,456) Pink Iceberg Games
Sonar Scout $5.99 26 100% 780 $4.7k (exactly $4,672) Dan Schumacher, Hjalte Tagmose, Neil Do… (Dan Schumacher, Hjalte Tagmose, Neil Doppelmayr, Christoph Englert, Pontus Liljekvist, Hugo Roque)
Undefined Survivors -アンディファインド サバイバーズ- · EA $29.99 2 0% 60 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) Runpath Inc.
SERPENT AT THE VERNISSAGE $6.99 8 100% 240 $1.7k (exactly $1,678) a trip by daniel bock
Killer Depths $7.99 2 100% 60 $479 (exactly $479) Stardust Smithy
Dark Sea $0.99 8 87% 240 $238 (exactly $238) DarkSignal Studios
Treasures of the Sunken Ship · EA $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) SchizoID game studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.