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Should I ship an Underwater Interactive Fiction?
Interactive Fiction + Underwater
Only 7 developers shipped an Underwater Interactive Fiction in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, PROXIMATE, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.
Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $540 against a market of $630. 16 games are announced.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $358 (exactly $358) |
|---|---|
| Median | $538 (exactly $538) |
| Top 25% | $76k (exactly $76,010) |
| Top 5% | $171k (exactly $171,254) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 7 |
| Released games | 27 |
| Announced | 16 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $3.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Interactive Fiction
- effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine
- Underwater
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Interactive Fiction
- Price point
- $3.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 3,273 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 16 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Interactive Fiction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVFair
- + Match 3Fair
- + VampiresFair
- + SportsFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + PiratesFair
- + DrivingFair
- + DiplomacyFair
- + Perma DeathFair
- + Board GameFair
- + SnowFair
- + BuildingFair
Comparable games
SILT 2022 · $357k 
Thalassa: Edge of the Abyss 2024 · $191k 
PROXIMATE 2024 · $171k 
Verne: The Shape of Fantasy 2023 · $99k 
Loan Shark 2025 · $76k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | SILT | older | $14.99 | 793 79% | 24k | $357k (exactly $356,612) | Spiral Circus Games |
| | Thalassa: Edge of the Abyss | older | $19.99 | 318 87% | 9.5k | $191k (exactly $190,705) | Sarepta Studio |
| | PROXIMATE | $5.99 | 953 93% | 29k | $171k (exactly $171,254) | Cain Maddox | |
| | Verne: The Shape of Fantasy | older | $14.99 | 221 82% | 6.6k | $99k (exactly $99,384) | Gametopia |
| | Loan Shark | $3.99 | 635 84% | 19k | $76k (exactly $76,010) | Studio Ortica | |
 | Debris | older | $9.99 | 97 60% | 2.9k | $29k (exactly $29,071) | Moonray Studios |
 | The Trench | older | $3.99 | 160 85% | 4.8k | $19k (exactly $19,152) | Omar Chapa Hernandez, Omar Chapa Moyers |
 | Insiders | older | $13.99 | 40 80% | 1.2k | $17k (exactly $16,788) | ANG People s.r.o. |
 | Wavekin | $9.99 | 28 100% | 840 | $8.4k (exactly $8,392) | La Folie Studio | |
 | It Sleeps Below the Haar | older | $7.99 | 28 85% | 840 | $6.7k (exactly $6,712) | Arboreta Games |
 | IDLE PET UFO | $2.99 | 6 100% | 180 | $538 (exactly $538) | 電脳鈴木組 | |
 | Esca | $1.99 | 6 83% | 180 | $358 (exactly $358) | LuN | |
 | My Little Merling | $5.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $180 (exactly $180) | Cuddly Games | |
 | bonitāka's aquarium of medusae | $3.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | bonitāka |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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