Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Social Deduction

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Social Deduction game?

Social Deduction

Of 101 developers who shipped a Social Deduction game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 177 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×0.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×152 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 177 games are announced against 76 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 177 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Social Deduction
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 101
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $28k → $8.2k → $3.1k → $4.0k → $5.7k → $2.2k → $1.7k (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Social Deduction: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 101
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,490)
Top 5% $228k (exactly $228,154)
Developers, 2 yr 101
Released games 226
Announced 177
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 205% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Social Deduction
effort 7 / 10 · low · online lobbies, voice or chat, live player base

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Social Deduction
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 38,590 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 177 games are announced against 76 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Social Deduction

18 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Social Deduction + Survival Fair $6.2k 31 devs
  2. Social Deduction + Simulation Fair $1.5k 14 devs
  3. Social Deduction + Puzzle Long shot $899 15 devs
  4. Social Deduction + Board Game Long shot $899 13 devs
  5. Social Deduction + Survival Horror Poor odds $18k 14 devs
  6. Social Deduction + Adventure Poor odds $6.6k 16 devs
  7. Social Deduction + Character Customization Poor odds $4.0k 15 devs
  8. PvP + Social Deduction Poor odds $2.2k 77 devs
  9. Social Deduction + RPG Poor odds $2.2k 15 devs
  10. Social Deduction + Action Poor odds $1.7k 46 devs
  11. Online Co-Op + Social Deduction Poor odds $1.5k 61 devs
  12. Social Deduction + Strategy Poor odds $1.5k 48 devs
  13. Co-op + Social Deduction Poor odds $1.4k 43 devs
  14. Social Deduction + Investigation Poor odds $1.4k 26 devs
  15. Social Deduction + Stealth Poor odds $1.3k 28 devs
  16. Social Deduction + Party Game Poor odds $1.2k 46 devs
  17. Social Deduction + Choices Matter Poor odds $899 14 devs
  18. Social Deduction + Tabletop Poor odds $599 13 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Among Us 2018 · $99M LOCKDOWN Protocol 2025 · $5.0M Town of Salem 2014 · $4.6M Project Winter 2019 · $4.1M GNOSIA 2022 · $3.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Among Us older $4.99 659,003 92% 20M $99M (exactly $98,652,749) Innersloth
LOCKDOWN Protocol $9.99 16,605 86% 498k $5.0M (exactly $4,976,518) Mirage Creative Lab
Town of Salem older $4.99 30,882 88% 926k $4.6M (exactly $4,623,035) BlankMediaGames
Project Winter older $9.99 13,662 84% 410k $4.1M (exactly $4,094,501) Other Ocean Interactive
GNOSIA older $24.99 4,855 93% 146k $3.6M (exactly $3,639,794) Petit Depotto
Deceive Inc. older $19.99 4,755 84% 143k $2.9M (exactly $2,851,574) Sweet Bandits Studios
In Silence older $9.99 9,450 75% 284k $2.8M (exactly $2,832,165) Ravenhood Games
MIMESIS · EA $9.99 8,396 84% 252k $2.5M (exactly $2,516,281) ReLU Games, Inc.
The Jackbox Party Pack 6 older $29.99 2,343 95% 70k $2.1M (exactly $2,107,997) Jackbox Games, Inc.
Dale & Dawson Stationery Supplies older $7.99 7,792 91% 234k $1.9M (exactly $1,867,742) Striped Panda Studios
Feign $4.99 5,270 91% 158k $789k (exactly $788,919) Teneke Kafalar
DEATH NOTE Killer Within $9.99 2,324 84% 70k $697k (exactly $696,503) Grounding Inc.
Sinister Night 2 $9.99 1,800 86% 54k $539k (exactly $539,460) Bug Inventors
Scam Line · EA $6.99 1,088 84% 33k $228k (exactly $228,154) RavenJm
KILLER INN · EA $9.99 670 44% 20k $201k (exactly $200,799) Square Enix, Tactic Studios
It Has My Face $9.99 608 88% 18k $182k (exactly $182,218) NightByte Games
BACKROOMS: APPREHENSION $2.99 1,371 83% 41k $123k (exactly $122,979) DMNT Interactive
Airport Security Sucks! $7.99 458 85% 14k $110k (exactly $109,783) JakeHub, Metater

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.