Do I ship it?

Games › Social Deduction › Social Deduction + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation Social Deduction game?

Social Deduction + Simulation

Only 14 developers shipped a Simulation Social Deduction game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Airport Security Sucks!, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $50. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 25 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 25 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Social Deduction + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $28k → $3.8k → $14k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Social Deduction + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Top 25% $8.4k (exactly $8,442)
Top 5% $110k (exactly $109,783)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 35
Announced 25
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.50

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 1200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Social Deduction
effort 7 / 10 · low · online lobbies, voice or chat, live player base
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Social Deduction, Simulation; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry PvP, Party Game, Strategy
Price point
$6.50 typical · top 25% priced $7.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $7.99 or above; the middle game at $6.50.

The top 9 games average 86% positive over 750 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $8.4k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 25 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Social Deduction with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SurvivalFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  2. + PsychologicalFair25 devs · median $4.8k · 34 announced
  3. + PuzzleLong shot15 devs · median $899 · 22 announced
  4. + Board GameLong shot13 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $18k · 17 announced
  6. + HorrorPoor odds22 devs · median $10k · 35 announced
  7. + AdventurePoor odds16 devs · median $6.6k · 23 announced
  8. + Character CustomizationPoor odds15 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds77 devs · median $2.2k · 134 announced
  10. + RPGPoor odds15 devs · median $2.2k · 25 announced
  11. + ActionPoor odds46 devs · median $1.7k · 81 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds61 devs · median $1.5k · 102 announced

All 21 pairs on the Social Deduction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

GNOSIA 2022 · $3.6M SpyParty 2018 · EA · $855k Castaway Paradise - live among the animals 2015 · $201k Murderous Pursuits 2018 · $113k Airport Security Sucks! 2026 · $110k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
GNOSIA older $24.99 4,855 93% 146k $3.6M (exactly $3,639,794) Petit Depotto
SpyParty · EA older $24.99 1,140 77% 34k $855k (exactly $854,658) Chris Hecker, John Cimino
Castaway Paradise - live among the animals older $14.99 447 71% 13k $201k (exactly $201,016) Stolen Couch Games
Murderous Pursuits older $9.99 376 66% 11k $113k (exactly $112,687) Blazing Griffin
Airport Security Sucks! $7.99 458 85% 14k $110k (exactly $109,783) JakeHub, Metater
Werewolves Within™ older $19.99 135 65% 4.1k $81k (exactly $80,960) Ubisoft
Deducto 2 older $4.99 450 91% 14k $67k (exactly $67,365) Red Fox Studios
Among Waifus 18+ older $6.99 241 58% 7.2k $51k (exactly $50,538) Romantic Room
Prison Life 2 older $4.99 188 77% 5.6k $28k (exactly $28,144) AO Games
Cheater's Table · EA $6.99 69 95% 2.1k $14k (exactly $14,469) Lagari
BUNKER: RED FLAG · EA $4.99 93 79% 2.8k $14k (exactly $13,922) Red Flag Team
Trade Rivals - Goblin Age · EA $4.20 67 88% 2.0k $8.4k (exactly $8,442) Roog Game Studio
North Hunt $6.50 24 75% 720 $4.7k (exactly $4,680) NewGen
Roulette Heist $6.99 18 94% 540 $3.8k (exactly $3,775) DreamArk Lab
Beguile $4.99 10 100% 300 $1.5k (exactly $1,497) coeda
Agent Versus $5.99 7 100% 210 $1.3k (exactly $1,258) Game Inside Studio
Reality Rivals: The First Season $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Americode
Tomato Dealer $9.00 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) bokanik

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.