Do I ship it?

GamesSocial DeductionSocial Deduction + Character Customization

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Character Customization Social Deduction game?

Social Deduction + Character Customization

Only 15 developers shipped a Character Customization Social Deduction game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, DEATH NOTE Killer Within, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.0k, ×2.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $690k, ×465 the market median. Revenue is up 135% on the market; 32 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 135% on the market, 32 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Social Deduction + Character Customization
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $697k → $9.0k (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Social Deduction + Character Customization: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $4.0k (exactly $4,042)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $18,413)
Top 5% $697k (exactly $696,503)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 34
Announced 32
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 135% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Social Deduction
effort 7 / 10 · low · online lobbies, voice or chat, live player base
Character Customization
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Social Deduction, Character Customization; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry PvP, Action, Co-op
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Dialogue Heavy, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 3,304 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $4.0k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $690k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Social Deduction with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SurvivalFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  2. + PsychologicalFair25 devs · median $4.8k · 34 announced
  3. + SimulationFair14 devs · median $1.5k · 25 announced
  4. + PuzzleLong shot15 devs · median $899 · 22 announced
  5. + Board GameLong shot13 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  6. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $18k · 17 announced
  7. + HorrorPoor odds22 devs · median $10k · 35 announced
  8. + AdventurePoor odds16 devs · median $6.6k · 23 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds77 devs · median $2.2k · 134 announced
  10. + RPGPoor odds15 devs · median $2.2k · 25 announced
  11. + ActionPoor odds46 devs · median $1.7k · 81 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds61 devs · median $1.5k · 102 announced

All 21 pairs on the Social Deduction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dale & Dawson Stationery Supplies older $7.99 7,792 91% 234k $1.9M (exactly $1,867,742) Striped Panda Studios
DEATH NOTE Killer Within $9.99 2,324 84% 70k $697k (exactly $696,503) Grounding Inc.
Castaway Paradise - live among the animals older $14.99 447 71% 13k $201k (exactly $201,016) Stolen Couch Games
KILLER INN · EA $9.99 670 44% 20k $201k (exactly $200,799) Square Enix, Tactic Studios
Deducto 2 older $4.99 450 91% 14k $67k (exactly $67,365) Red Fox Studios
Paper Pirates older $12.99 115 91% 3.5k $45k (exactly $44,816) Iteration Games
DreadHaunt $19.99 39 64% 1.2k $23k (exactly $23,388) Digital Happiness
Trust No Bunny older $5.99 109 93% 3.3k $20k (exactly $19,587) Friendly Pixel, Inc.
Who's Next? $4.99 123 87% 3.7k $18k (exactly $18,413) HellAssociation
Paws Coven $6.99 43 67% 1.3k $9.0k (exactly $9,017) Wintercrow Games
Eat the Rich: Greed Games $7.99 26 96% 780 $6.2k (exactly $6,232) Maccima Games
DEATHMARK · EA $4.99 35 91% 1.1k $5.2k (exactly $5,240) Wired Creations Studio
Ritual Night · EA $4.99 27 85% 810 $4.0k (exactly $4,042) Outfox Games
Catolonizer · EA $5.99 12 100% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) Alin Games
Prison Gambit · EA $5.99 5 100% 150 $898 (exactly $898) Wolven Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.